Forums - Sports Discussion - The NFL Thread 2016: New England Patriots Win Super Bowl LI

Who will win Super Bowl LI?

New England Patriots 51 47.66%
 
Kansas City Chiefs 3 2.80%
 
Pittsburgh Steelers 6 5.61%
 
Other (AFC) 3 2.80%
 
Dallas Cowboys 10 9.35%
 
Atlanta Falcons 15 14.02%
 
Seattle Seahawks 5 4.67%
 
Green Bay Packers 5 4.67%
 
Other (NFC) 4 3.74%
 
Scoreboard 5 4.67%
 
Total:107

Elliot Harrison's power rankings:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000768870/article/nfl-power-rankings-giants-up-raiders-down-entering-playoffs

How do they stack up in comparison to mine? (Numbers in parantheses represent my ranking from earlier this week.)

1. Patriots (1)
2. Cowboys (2)
3. Steelers (5)
4. Chiefs (4)
5. Falcons (3)
6. Packers (6)
7. Giants (8)
8. Seahawks (7)
9. Dolphins (11)
10. Lions (9)
11. Raiders (10)
14. Texans (12)

The above isn't a mistake, the Texans are really ranked 14th. Harrison has the Buccaneers and Redskins in 12th and 13th place, respectively.

Overall, not too different from my power rankings. Not surprising, because I didn't make any bold calls.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

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ANNOUNCEMENT - Consolation Round Setup

I had my doubts that this will work and my concerns became true. I haven't received picks or a refusal from most people in the following table.

# Username Record/PDT vs. Record/PDT Username # HFA
22 theRepublic   vs.   zuvuyeay 17 11
21 Farsala   vs.   castor 18 7
20 Angelus   vs.   BlowoverKing 19 6

Should I now trust that all of the above people will submit predictions this week? That seems to be about as smart as expecting a Bethesda game to have proper quality assurance. So instead the above matchups aren't final as previously announced, they are subject to be improvised based on the number of people who show up. This means none of these six people know who they'll be matched up against this weekend, but once the matchups are determined after the kickoff of NYG@GB, the highest seed vs. lowest seed rule will apply, unless an odd number of people shows up. In such a case the highest seed advances to the next round without having faced an opponent.

Based on the number of the matchups that can be made, the number of losers from the top 16 playoffs who can join the consolation round may increase. For example, if fewer than five of the above people show up, six of the losers will move over to the consolation round.

If something is unclear, feel free to ask. Quite sad what a mess this consolation round has been during wild card weekend each year.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

good job rol & fated reality,
i won't be playing the losers round,playoffs or nothing for me



                                                                                                                                        Above & Beyond

   

My picks are locked and loaded into Rol's inbox. No easy week for you NinjaBlade360!!



Wooo, 5 Cowboys got All Pro 1st team.

Sean Lee, Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick, Zack Martin, and Ezekiel Elliot in case anyone was wondering who.



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MTZehvor said:
Chris Hu said:

People seem to forget that they had a hard time making it to be finals they should have have lost to the Thunder in the semi finals.  A great defense is more helpful then a great offense.  Plus once we get to the title game the team with the better defense usually wins just last year was a prime example of that.

The better defense, by yards allowed, has lost in six of the past ten Super Bowls (2014, 2012, 2010, 2009, 2007, and 2006). The notion of "defense wins championships" has relatively little historical founding. Teams that can compensate for their biggest weaknesses win championships. Denver won last year not just because their defense was great, but because they had a quality running game and Peyton, despite virtually being wheelchair bound, didn't make mistakes. He only threw one interception all postseason. They compensated for a quarterback with a wet noodle for an arm by not screwing up and by letting their defense win the game for them.

The question isn't "is Dallas' defense too bad for them to reach the Super Bowl?" If New England can reach the Super Bowl with the second worst defense in the league, Dallas certainly can with theirs. The question is "can they do enough to compensate for the relative weakness of their defense?" That question will largely rely on whether their offense can continue do what it's been doing the whole season when playing teams not named the Giants; possess the ball for large stretches of time and give the opposing offense as few chances as possible to expose the defense's flaws.

Yards allowed is not the ultimate messure of the best defense and better defense its a combination of yards allowed, sacks, interceptions and other forced turnovers caused.



Chris Hu said:
MTZehvor said:

The better defense, by yards allowed, has lost in six of the past ten Super Bowls (2014, 2012, 2010, 2009, 2007, and 2006). The notion of "defense wins championships" has relatively little historical founding. Teams that can compensate for their biggest weaknesses win championships. Denver won last year not just because their defense was great, but because they had a quality running game and Peyton, despite virtually being wheelchair bound, didn't make mistakes. He only threw one interception all postseason. They compensated for a quarterback with a wet noodle for an arm by not screwing up and by letting their defense win the game for them.

The question isn't "is Dallas' defense too bad for them to reach the Super Bowl?" If New England can reach the Super Bowl with the second worst defense in the league, Dallas certainly can with theirs. The question is "can they do enough to compensate for the relative weakness of their defense?" That question will largely rely on whether their offense can continue do what it's been doing the whole season when playing teams not named the Giants; possess the ball for large stretches of time and give the opposing offense as few chances as possible to expose the defense's flaws.

Yards allowed is not the ultimate messure of the best defense and better defense its a combination of yards allowed, sacks, interceptions and other forced turnovers caused.

We can go by those totals, then, if you want.

The better defense, by sacks, has won in 6 of 10. 2008 (Steelers), 2009 (Saints), 2011 (Giants), 2013 (Seahawks), 2014 (Patriots), and 2015 (Broncos). Slightly better, over 50%, but hardly a guarantee that you will win a championship.

I'm going to compile turnovers forced on defense into one stat, because looking up individual fumble/INT totals is pretty time consuming. The better defense by turnovers allowed won in 2010 (Packers), 2012 (Ravens), 2014 (Patriots), and 2015 (Broncos). Only 4/10 this time around, so we're back to under 50%.

Admittedly this isn't a "combination" of measures; it's each measure individually, but it's hard to imagine any kind of combination measure where defensive quality winds up being a good sole predictor of who will win the Super Bowl. You wouldn't even get over 50% unless you started weighting sack totals extremely heavily, and at that point it's just selectivity bias.



Sent my picks off to Noble. Oak is a hard team to trust considering there down a QB.



     

Check out my lastest games review: Fast RMX and  Snipperclips: Cut it out Together

You can win a superbowl with a lousy offense if you have a great defense Tampa Bay in 2002 would be the best example they actually pretty much shut down the #1 offense in the superbowl.  Plus you can win a superbowl with a great defenese and without a ballanced offense the 85 Bears would probably be the best example of that they had a great rushing offense but where near the bottom of the leauge when it came to passing yards.



Chris Hu said:
NobleTeam360 said:
Pittsburgh vs Dallas for SB. Just watch.

Nope both Green Bay and Atlanta can shred the Arlington's Cowgirls defense (especially the questionable secondary) for massive points.  Plus if the Giants make it they have the defense to shut them down for another victory for the third time.

It's pretty hard to beat a team three times in a season. I don't remember it happening except the 1999 season IIRC when the Titans went 13-3 but lost the division to the 14-2 Jaguars, whose 2 losses came to the Titans, and Tennesee beat them a third time en route to the Super Bowl. It might have happened since then, but I don't recall.

Dallas doesn't have a great defense but while you guys compare turnovers and yardage and sacks and etc etc Dallas is top 5 in the only stat that really matters for a defense, and that is points given up. Now that stat can sometimes be misleading, for example the Pats lead the league in points given up per game but they really only faced one scary offense this season and that is Seattle, who was very off and on week to week, but Wilson threw all over them. Only faced two top 10 offenses all season, one was #9 in week one, and the other was Pittsburgh who IIRC were without Ben for that game. Dallas had a top 3 divisional opponent they had to play twice plus Green Bay and a healthy Pittsburgh. They won all four games. They are 2nd in the league in TOP last I checked.

I mean, look at the Denver Broncos. #4 in points per game, #4 in yards per game, top 10 IIRC in third down percentage, top 10 in takeaways, fewest touchdown passes allowed, fewest yards gained per pass attempt, you could go on and on about how phenomenal the defense was. Yet because of how putrid the offense was, they had the 2nd or 3rd most plays ran against them, and every game they eventually wore down. Dallas has the exact opposite setup. Their offense is so good and more importantly efficient, they make the defense much better.

Of course, they are in the wrong conference this season. To get to the SB they could have to play through Green Bay, Seattle, or Atlanta. The less scary offenses are the Lions and Giants, either of which can ignite at any time. Compare that to the AFC where thanks to injury/Osweiler you have three teams with no QB, which is half the field.

GB and Atlanta have the offense to shred anyone in the playoffs defense. You have to worry about your teams offense, not the defense.