12-16 exclusives on launch isn't happening, unless he is including late ports for several of the Q1-Q3 2020 XB1 games as exclusives, which I do not. XB1 launched with 22 titles as I recall; 10 exclusives, 3 of which were AAA (Dead Rising 3, Forza Motorsport 5, Ryse), 7 which were AA or A (including Zoo Tycoon, Killer Instinct, and Crimson Dragon), and most of those 7 smaller exclusives flopped, overshadowed by the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd party AAA’s of the crowded Holiday season. Microsoft would be foolish to repeat that mistake and send a bunch of single A games out to their doom. They’d be better off with 3 AAA’s and 3 AA’s on launch than say 2 AAA’s, 5 AA’s, and 9 A’s, as most of those AA and A games will be overshadowed and flop.
Right now we have 1 confirmed launch exclusive for Series X, Halo Infinite, with the strong possibility of an exclusive Forza as well, considering the Forza section in the Series X reveal trailer. So it's safe to say that MS will probably have at least 1 more AAA exclusive available on Series X launch, preferably something that is fully exclusive and a graphical showcase title for Series X, since Halo and likely Forza will both be crossgen, held back by XB1. That 3rd AAA could be Senua’s Saga since we know it is fully exclusive, but Phil called it early development, so 2021 seems more likely for it. They'll also need a few AA exclusives on launch. They need at least 1 AA JP 2nd/3rd party exclusive on launch, if they don't want Series X to flop even harder in Japan than XB1 did; ignoring Japan totally on release could cost them JP 3rd party support early next gen, just like early this gen. Personally hoping to see the long rumored AAA Perfect Dark story driven reboot available on launch, developed by a 2nd party partner with some 1st party assistance.
Last edited by shikamaru317 - on 15 December 2019
As for Sony's PS5 launch titles, it's safe to say that ports or BC enhancements of TLOU 2 and Ghost of Tsushima will happen. There are also rumors of a GT Sport port on launch, or possibly even Gran Turismo 7. I also think we could see Horizon Zero Dawn 2 on launch, as they'll have had over 3 years to develop it as of Holiday 2020, and it will be the main graphical showcase title for Playstation 5, developed exclusively for PS5. Most of Sony's 1st party studios blew their load on late PS4 exclusives, which could hurt their 1st party output early next gen, so I look for them to rely quite heavily on 2nd and 3rd party exclusives, like the already announced Godfall.