Forums - Sales Discussion - When will PS4 reach 10 million sold? - ioi comments on undertracking

ethomaz said:

It is officially sold to consumers and Sony even give you the period of data that they collected on each region using NPD (US), GFK (Europe, Latin America), MC (Japan) and GFK I guess (Asia).


They will be using their own internal data which won't necessarily be exactly the same as other tracking firms have estimated.



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ioi said:
Just to add a little more transparency - one method we have used with PS3 / 360 to estimate sales in regions we don't directly track is via XBL and PSN accounts. So if, for example, we randomly pick 10,000 XBL accounts we can find what proportion of users are from each region - it might be 45.3% USA, 5.1% Canada and so on. Using the tracked data we have, we can then extrapolate to form an estimate of how many units may have been sold in the various MEAA regions.

What we can't do, is track say 75m units in the regions we cover then just say "oh there must have been another 7m sold somewhere" just because a manufacturer announces a figure (which may or may not be sold-through). I don't like the idea of just having a catch-all number like that - we need to be able to account for every unit sold either directly or via a measured and logical extrapolation.

Well that method seems to be lacking severely. 

Not every Xbox One or PS4 owners have PSN or XBL accounts. In countries were the internet connection is very bad or non existent. How can you track a console sale using this method?



DD_Bwest said:
just put it in the other column, and when you finally figure out what your doing, you can adjust the numbers. that way you you dont look... oh.. to late


Yes this ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^



ioi said:
Sal.Paradise said:

So basically until another firm that actually properly tracks those regions does your job for you, we're stuck with an embarassingly incorrect figure on the front page. Go VGC.

I don't believe that are any firms tracking sales in those regions as they are so hard to track - certainly not on a weekly basis. The best we may get is a report from manufacturers as to how many units they have shipped to a region or some rough estimates from a local trade body or similar. I doubt if there is anyone in the world who could accurately tell you how many PS3s were sold in India last week.

Weekly PS3 figures in India? Funny, but what we're asking of you here is nowhere near that level of accuracy.

You have to wait on other people's numbers because you have no idea how to account for over half a million PS4s sold in the past 3/4 months.

It's fair to say that we expect you to have some broad idea of where that many units are allocated. That's a massive amount of the hardware market that until now you apparently didn't realize existed.



xenogears1234 said:
DD_Bwest said:
just put it in the other column, and when you finally figure out what your doing, you can adjust the numbers. that way you you dont look... oh.. to late


Yes this ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^


expanding on the idea, you could create a new column for "unaccounted"     and have it make up the difference.  that way people see the tracked, and they see the total given by sony



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Also in a similar case a couple of years ago, PD announced 10 million sold copies of GT5 and this site didn't know where to put them so they dumped them in "rest of the world" at that time.



It's a bit strange that estimated numbers would trump official announced numbers, tho. Not really an expert on video game marketing statistics. But in every marketing research/industry studies I've done, we've always defaulted to "highest known accuracy" figures we could get our hands on (in which official announced numbers from a primary source would trump everything else) rather than sticking to estimated figures we've managed to extrapolate from using in-house methodologies.

Tho, I'm sure it has a lot to do with doing an apples-to-apples comparison between consoles (using same methodology to compare them to make comparisons "fair"). But damn, that margin of error.....



2008ProchargedGT said:
Aerys said:

Ok but you do know X360 is overtracked by 1M in Germany(official numbers from germany) no need to search where to put these numbers, and still, you didnt fix that.
And it's pretty clear PS4 undertracking coems from Europe, you undertracked it by 50k only in Germany, so it's easy to imagine it's the same in a lot of other countries in Europe where your datas are the less accurate.

A wild IoI appears. VGchartz poster uses logic, its ineffective...

Er...what logic? ioi asked for for resources and research to bolster numbers, and the poster responded with #nahbutIsaidsosochangeitrightnowloser



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overman1 said:
ioi said:

On the subject of Sony's 10m announcement and adjustments and in an attempt to be fully transparent - until we can figure out where the "missing" 600k units have been sold then we obviously can't adjust the figures since they certainly aren't in the USA, Canada, Mexico and South America, UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Benelux, Scandinavia, Eastern Europe, Russia, Australia, New Zealand or Japan in which our data is very accurate and lines up well with other data providers. Our estimates for the other regions (Middle East, Africa, Asia) are rough estimates based on trends seen with PS2 / PS3.

Our data for the regions we track as listed above for PS4 adds up to around 9.0m which should be accurate to +/- 100k. We estimate a further 140k in the Middle East and Africa and 290k in the remainder of Asia taking us to the 9.4m you can see on the homepage.

If Sony's numbers are to be believed as being accurate sell-through then clearly they have sold an enormously disproportional amount in one of those regions and once we know which one we can make the necessary adjustments. We can't just add 600k units to the total - we need to know which regions to adjust so we can ensure that we are on track moving forwards. This is why adjustments don't always happen straight away or sometimes not at all - we can't just randomly add sales here and there to make things add up!

The same goes for complaints about PS3 and 360 sales - until we can get hard data for regions such as the Middle East, Africa, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, India, China and so on then the best we can do is extrapolate based on general market trends and make best estimates for specific platform sales in those regions. If you wish to help and know of any reports or research in those regions then let me know and we can compare to our estimates and make adjustments as necessary.

This is what I dont understand.

It is not just with your console tracking but with your software tracking too. SOny announced over 30 million software sales while you guys still have it at about 26 million+. The last of us (PS3) has sold over 7million+ worldwide by the end of 2013. but you guys still have it as 4 million+ in 2014. I dont know how you do you trackings but it is definitely lacking in some major aspect especially when it is about the PS brand. Germany offically reported over $50k PS4 consoles more than you guys but you still havent changed it. 

Digital.



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Lol ioi, so full of it. Vgchartz is partially tracking and partially estimates don't try to fool anyone that it is anything more than that.

Edit: This one was way to far - Starcraft