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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will PS4 reach 10 million sold? - ioi comments on undertracking

ethomaz on 18 August 2014

BHR-3 said:

well to Sony a retailer is technaclly a consumer for them or it could of just been misinformation like we had with the TR exclusive deal

 

i beleive the only way sony could claim they sold 10M is if at that time they shipped close to 11M and assumed that 10M has sold to consumers

I set you a PM but it is better to make everything clear.

http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/release/140813a_e.html

"Tokyo, August 13, 2014 – Sony Computer Entertainment Inc. (SCE) today announced that the PlayStation®4 (PS4™) computer entertainment system has cumulatively sold through more than 10 million units*1 worldwide as of August 10, 2014

*1 Number of retail sales to consumers is estimated by SCEI. PS4 sales data in Japan collected 2/22/2014 – 8/10/2014. PS4 sales data in North America collected 11/15/2013 – 8/10/2014, in Europe and Latin America collected 11/29/2013 – 8/10/2014, and in Asia collected 11/29/2013 – 8/10/2014."

 

It is officially sold to consumers and Sony even give you the period of data that they collected on each region using NPD (US), GFK (Europe, Latin America), MC (Japan) and GFK I guess (Asia).



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vivster on 18 August 2014
BHR-3 said:

well to Sony a retailer is technaclly a consumer for them or it could of just been misinformation like we had with the TR exclusive deal

i beleive the only way sony could claim they sold 10M is if at that time they shipped close to 11M and assumed that 10M has sold to consumers

I think they were pretty clear

Start at 8:05

Also have a look in this thread where people try to explain how Sony obtains sales data.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=188359



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BHR-3 on 18 August 2014
xenogears1234 said:
BHR-3 said:
where are you guys getting this 10M sold to consumers?

i was always under the impression that when a manufacture announced numbers either HW or SW they were always shipped since manufactures dont track sold to consumers but do have very accurate shipped numbers

You must be the only person on the planet who has not seen the billion articles on this, and every site from sonys official press release that states speciifically sold to consumers not shipped they used that exact verbage.

yes sorry have not really payed attention to gaming news lately outside SW news seen the announcment but at the time never looked into it but i do try to stay impartial, the proof is in the pudding in this case http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/release/140813a_e.html



                                                             

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overman1 on 18 August 2014
ioi said:
Just to add a little more transparency - one method we have used with PS3 / 360 to estimate sales in regions we don't directly track is via XBL and PSN accounts. So if, for example, we randomly pick 10,000 XBL accounts we can find what proportion of users are from each region - it might be 45.3% USA, 5.1% Canada and so on. Using the tracked data we have, we can then extrapolate to form an estimate of how many units may have been sold in the various MEAA regions.

What we can't do, is track say 75m units in the regions we cover then just say "oh there must have been another 7m sold somewhere" just because a manufacturer announces a figure (which may or may not be sold-through). I don't like the idea of just having a catch-all number like that - we need to be able to account for every unit sold either directly or via a measured and logical extrapolation.

Well that method seems to be lacking severely. 

Not every Xbox One or PS4 owners have PSN or XBL accounts. In countries were the internet connection is very bad or non existent. How can you track a console sale using this method?



xenogears1234 on 18 August 2014
DD_Bwest said:
just put it in the other column, and when you finally figure out what your doing, you can adjust the numbers. that way you you dont look... oh.. to late


Yes this ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^



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Sal.Paradise on 18 August 2014
ioi said:
Sal.Paradise said:

So basically until another firm that actually properly tracks those regions does your job for you, we're stuck with an embarassingly incorrect figure on the front page. Go VGC.

I don't believe that are any firms tracking sales in those regions as they are so hard to track - certainly not on a weekly basis. The best we may get is a report from manufacturers as to how many units they have shipped to a region or some rough estimates from a local trade body or similar. I doubt if there is anyone in the world who could accurately tell you how many PS3s were sold in India last week.

Weekly PS3 figures in India? Funny, but what we're asking of you here is nowhere near that level of accuracy.

You have to wait on other people's numbers because you have no idea how to account for over half a million PS4s sold in the past 3/4 months.

It's fair to say that we expect you to have some broad idea of where that many units are allocated. That's a massive amount of the hardware market that until now you apparently didn't realize existed.



DD_Bwest on 18 August 2014
xenogears1234 said:
DD_Bwest said:
just put it in the other column, and when you finally figure out what your doing, you can adjust the numbers. that way you you dont look... oh.. to late


Yes this ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^


expanding on the idea, you could create a new column for "unaccounted"     and have it make up the difference.  that way people see the tracked, and they see the total given by sony



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Blood_Tears on 18 August 2014

Also in a similar case a couple of years ago, PD announced 10 million sold copies of GT5 and this site didn't know where to put them so they dumped them in "rest of the world" at that time.



DrDoomz on 18 August 2014

It's a bit strange that estimated numbers would trump official announced numbers, tho. Not really an expert on video game marketing statistics. But in every marketing research/industry studies I've done, we've always defaulted to "highest known accuracy" figures we could get our hands on (in which official announced numbers from a primary source would trump everything else) rather than sticking to estimated figures we've managed to extrapolate from using in-house methodologies.

Tho, I'm sure it has a lot to do with doing an apples-to-apples comparison between consoles (using same methodology to compare them to make comparisons "fair"). But damn, that margin of error.....



starcraft on 18 August 2014
2008ProchargedGT said:
Aerys said:

Ok but you do know X360 is overtracked by 1M in Germany(official numbers from germany) no need to search where to put these numbers, and still, you didnt fix that.
And it's pretty clear PS4 undertracking coems from Europe, you undertracked it by 50k only in Germany, so it's easy to imagine it's the same in a lot of other countries in Europe where your datas are the less accurate.

A wild IoI appears. VGchartz poster uses logic, its ineffective...

Er...what logic? ioi asked for for resources and research to bolster numbers, and the poster responded with #nahbutIsaidsosochangeitrightnowloser



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