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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Prediction: Which console will be in first place by the end of 2014?

 

Which console will have the most Lifetime sales by the end of 2014?

Wii U 210 25.55%
 
PS4 569 69.22%
 
Xbox One 42 5.11%
 
Total:821
lt_dan_27 on 04 January 2014

I'm guessing ps4 will have about 50% more sales than the xbox one, and the xbox one will have 50-100% more sales.



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Seece on 04 January 2014

Here's a simple stat Joe, by NPD.

End of 2007 in the US, 360 sales were 9.1m, Halo 3 sales were 4.8m

Even if XB1 hardware sales (really) disappointed and sold 4.5m (2.5m in US in 2014 seems unlikely but lets go with it) that's 2.4m in the US alone for Halo 5.



 

JoeTheBro on 04 January 2014
Seece said:
JoeTheBro said:
Seece said:

How much smaller do you expect in the US? I don't expect it to be anywhere near 15.8m WW by the end of 2014. I used US as that's where Halo sells best and is a good metric for how well it can do.

What do you think Halo 5 can do on a 4mill install base in the US when Halo 3 did 3.3m on 6.3m? First month btw.

360 was at 8.8 million at the end of 07 in America. Just to keep things simple lets say XBONE ends 14 with 4.4 million in America. Half the install base, half the sales. 1.6 million first month.

 

It's more complicated though. On one hand, the XBONE is going to have a more dedicated fanbase, at least by percents. On the other hand, Halo 4 has left a bad taste in people's mouths. I'm not saying it was a bad game, but it certainly was no Halo 2.

 

I'd go with a good and solid one and a half million first month.

What? It's gonna end 2013 with 1.5m - 1.8m judging by UK trends and 3m+ shipped.

I don't see XB1 on par with 07 PS3 sales, not with the huge reception it's had. 08 maybe, which was 3.5m. I'd say minimum is 5m. You realize the 3.3m figure is first month in the US only. Not for the whole of 2007 in north america.

Why do you think I gave you the totals?? 360 was at 6.3m in the US when Halo 3 launched and it sold 3.3m.

lol I know you can't fathom the XBONE having a less than stellar year. I can fully see it doing better than that, but I really just went with the simplicity of half the 360 sales.

I do wonder though. If you see 5 million as the minimum for US LTD by the end of 2014, what are you predicting it'll sell?

EDT: I see your other post.



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Zero999 on 04 January 2014
Seece said:
Zero999 said:

Nsmbu was above 2M before being bundled and 3d world will reach 2M soon enough.

Whaaa? It's not even near 1m yet.

330k in Japan week ending 21st. 215k in US Nov, probably the same in Dec, maybe a little more. Europe will obviously be less than both, especially as it fell out of the UK charts so quickly.

NSMB only did 2m in a year without bundles? The predecessor did like 23m??? So why are people saying DK ect are gonna sell huge because the ones on Wii did?

back with the fallacies. how could nsmbu sell 20m+ on a 4M installed base? and you mentioned the ltd of the predecessor.

Mario 3d world is at 1.3m with the december 21 numbers. the two following charts will put it really close to 2m = it will do 2m soon enough.



Seece on 04 January 2014
JoeTheBro said:
Seece said:
JoeTheBro said:
Seece said:

How much smaller do you expect in the US? I don't expect it to be anywhere near 15.8m WW by the end of 2014. I used US as that's where Halo sells best and is a good metric for how well it can do.

What do you think Halo 5 can do on a 4mill install base in the US when Halo 3 did 3.3m on 6.3m? First month btw.

360 was at 8.8 million at the end of 07 in America. Just to keep things simple lets say XBONE ends 14 with 4.4 million in America. Half the install base, half the sales. 1.6 million first month.

 

It's more complicated though. On one hand, the XBONE is going to have a more dedicated fanbase, at least by percents. On the other hand, Halo 4 has left a bad taste in people's mouths. I'm not saying it was a bad game, but it certainly was no Halo 2.

 

I'd go with a good and solid one and a half million first month.

What? It's gonna end 2013 with 1.5m - 1.8m judging by UK trends and 3m+ shipped.

I don't see XB1 on par with 07 PS3 sales, not with the huge reception it's had. 08 maybe, which was 3.5m. I'd say minimum is 5m. You realize the 3.3m figure is first month in the US only. Not for the whole of 2007 in north america.

Why do you think I gave you the totals?? 360 was at 6.3m in the US when Halo 3 launched and it sold 3.3m.

lol I know you can't fathom the XBONE having a less than stellar year. I can fully see it doing better than that, but I really just went with the simplicity of half the 360 sales.

I do wonder though. If you see 5 million as the minimum for US LTD by the end of 2014, what are you predicting it'll sell?

EDT: I see your other post.

100k average a month, 1m in Nov and 1m in Dec, and an extra 200k in September. = 5m~ Which IS terrible, I'm not expecting steller sales for XB1 until it gets a $100 cut.

But as you can see from Halo 3, by end of 07 its attach rate without mass bundling was over 50%.



 

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Legendary_W on 04 January 2014
small44 said:
Legendary_W said:
small44 said:
Legendary_W said:
small44 said:
Legendary_W said:
If there's something I've learnt about sales in this very website, is that we never know what to expect. Sales always take weird twists.
Looking at the current situation it's logical to assume PS4 will be the winner, but the real question is, will it be able to keep it's momentum? Will Wii U be able to make some sort of comeback (I'm not saying an epic one, just one good enough to compete properly against PS4)? What will happen with Xbox One? What about handhelds? I don't think that PS Vita will surpass 3DS but what if it suddenly starts selling great and 3DS sales lower making the gap between them decrease at a slow but steady rate?

Now, seriously people, we don't know what to truly expect specially since we have no idea what will companies do. Wii U + 3DS bundle? PS4 + Vita bundle? New services? What will happen when the Steam Machines come out and how will it affect the consoles sales? So much to think about.

If wii u manage to compete with ps4 it will be one of the most epic comeback but it imposible without 3rd party support same for psv it won't surpass Nintendo 3ds without 3ed party support.

Like I said, there's just so much to think about. We won't know how long will PS4 keep up these sales. Many people seem to believe it will always sell at these levels, but the truth is that we won't know 'till we see it for ourselves. Maybe it was just the initial hype + holidays, maybe  the console really is that convincing as for people to buy it in masses at anytime of the year, so as I said we won't know for sure until numbers speak. We also don't know what will happen with Wii U. Miyamoto's new IP can be either an epic fail or an epic win, X looks very promising, Mario Kart and Smash Bros. will be decisive, Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze and Yarn Yoshi aren't system sellers at all but are definitely strong additions to the catalogue. I'll just go ahead and quote myself: Sales always take weird twists. Personally, I'd like them all to do at least well enough to make profit.


3rd party is what make a console successfull not first party,Nintendo first party didn't save Gamecube ,the lack of support kill it,Wii is a exception dispite the lack of 3rd party support casual gamers make it succesfull,casual don't seems interested on Wii u and 3rd party will not support wii u because people would prefer to play their game on ps4/xboxone because they are more powerfull.


But if those first party titles allows the Wii U to sell more hardware then the userbase will be bigger and third-partys will be able sell more, so at least they will make a port for it since there are bigger chances for it to make a profit. The other positive result will be the  fact that since the community is bigger, in order to maintain a good image the games for Wii U will be taken more seriously and will be better optimized and have better support (DLCs and such). About the power thing, in that case everyone should simply dispose their console and buy a high-end PC. More expensive? Yes. More powerful and updated? Yes. You get what you pay for.

A bigger userbase won't chance anything if those new peoples aren't interested on those games or prefer to buy them on ps4/xboxone.

Aren't pc got games later then console version and with console you don't need to change ram and graphics card to play all the games i think that's why some people prefer consoles over pc.

I am sorry, but unfortunately I do not understand how can you state that a bigger userbase won't change a thing. It's simple logic, a bigger userbase means more people out there to buy games, and if you do proper marketing your game can reach these people, resulting in a more probable comercial success. A 5m userbase isn't the same as a 20 million userbase.

Sometimes, yes. PC users have to wait more as it's the case right now with GTA V, but at the same time, most of the games release at the same time in all platforms. 8 GB RAM is enough for gaming, and then you just have to worry about getting a good graphic card and CPU and once you do, then you're all set for 1080@60fps. But hey, this is a thread about consoles sales predictions for 2014, we don't want to de-rail the thread with a PC and consoles power discussion, do we? That said, we should focus on the thread's topic.

Back to topic, and particularly our discussion, I believe that if third partys did quality software for Nintendo and cleaned their names they would break the "TP dev makes a cheap (and so, inferior) port to prevent risk of losing money -> TP Game port sells bad -> Repeat from step 1" cycle and then they would sell well enough. I am not saying ALL companies are like that, but most of them are, and so, third-party games in general sell bad because of this bad reputation. Again, the logic is simple: Who would buy an inferior (Not just graphically) version of a game?



Seece on 04 January 2014
Zero999 said:
Seece said:
Zero999 said:

Nsmbu was above 2M before being bundled and 3d world will reach 2M soon enough.

Whaaa? It's not even near 1m yet.

330k in Japan week ending 21st. 215k in US Nov, probably the same in Dec, maybe a little more. Europe will obviously be less than both, especially as it fell out of the UK charts so quickly.

NSMB only did 2m in a year without bundles? The predecessor did like 23m??? So why are people saying DK ect are gonna sell huge because the ones on Wii did?

back with the fallacies. how could nsmbu sell 20m+ on a 4M installed base? and you mentioned the ltd of the predecessor.

Mario 3d world is at 1.3m with the december 21 numbers. the two following charts will put it really close to 2m = it will do 2m soon enough.

I wasn't, which is why I'm baffled people think DK ect will do so well and are using Wii as a metric. You can't do that, it's the WiiU.

It's not anywhere near 2m, the charts will be adjusted. You're expecting ridiculous sales in December which just aren't going to happen. Like I said, 500k in NA, 400k in Japan, 300k in Europe, 100k elsewhere = 1.3m end of the year.



 

Zero999 on 04 January 2014
Seece said:
Zero999 said:

back with the fallacies. how could nsmbu sell 20m+ on a 4M installed base? and you mentioned the ltd of the predecessor.

Mario 3d world is at 1.3m with the december 21 numbers. the two following charts will put it really close to 2m = it will do 2m soon enough.

I wasn't, which is why I'm baffled people think DK ect will do so well and are using Wii as a metric. You can't do that, it's the WiiU.

It's not anywhere near 2m, the charts will be adjusted. You're expecting ridiculous sales in December which just aren't going to happen. Like I said, 500k in NA, 400k in Japan, 300k in Europe, 100k elsewhere = 1.3m end of the year.

if the charts of dec 21 puts it at 1.3m, then RIGHT NOW, january 4th, it's really close to 2m. if the charts are adjusted, it will be up.



Seece on 04 January 2014
Zero999 said:
Seece said:
Zero999 said:

back with the fallacies. how could nsmbu sell 20m+ on a 4M installed base? and you mentioned the ltd of the predecessor.

Mario 3d world is at 1.3m with the december 21 numbers. the two following charts will put it really close to 2m = it will do 2m soon enough.

I wasn't, which is why I'm baffled people think DK ect will do so well and are using Wii as a metric. You can't do that, it's the WiiU.

It's not anywhere near 2m, the charts will be adjusted. You're expecting ridiculous sales in December which just aren't going to happen. Like I said, 500k in NA, 400k in Japan, 300k in Europe, 100k elsewhere = 1.3m end of the year.

if the charts of dec 21 puts it at 1.3m, then RIGHT NOW, january 4th, it's really close to 2m. if the charts are adjusted, it will be up.

Based on what? Your hopes? Because nothing suggests it will be up. It did 215k in November NPD and you're expecting 600k+ for December. That isn't logical based on November sales. So yeah, it'll be adjusted down in January when we get full figures. Brace yourself.



 

RJ_Sizzle on 04 January 2014

This question is almost like asking which direction will the sun rise.