Crazy Prediction Gallery This is a place for people to put the crazy sales predictions of others, with citations, for posterity and hilarity. THIS IS NOT INTENDED TO BE A PLACE FOR SERIOUS DEBATES OVER SALES PROJECTIONS. NOR IS IT THE PLACE FOR BOOSTING YOUR FAVORITE CONSOLE OR HATING ON OTHERS. THE RULES: 1. The crazy prediction must be attributed to someone other than yourself; 2a. You must provide the thread and timestamp of the post containing the crazy prediction; or, 2b. If the crazy prediction is in someone's signature, you must provide the date the C.P. was collected and (if possible) the date the C.P. was made (if you can't find out, it's OK); 3. You must repeat the relevant text containing the prediction; 4. You must explain why the C.P. is crazy. (Well-known and highly-debunked C.P.s don't require highly detailed explanations; e.g. "Wii fad will die in 6 months" / "Wii is selling out into its second year and shows no signs of dying". Also, they're boring. But original C.P.s need extra attention.) To qualify, a prediction but be more than just unlikely. It must be more than simply outlandish. It must be so out there that no one could looking at the facts rationally would make that prediction, no matter how optimistic (or pessimistic) he may be. For instance, a prediction for lifetime sales of PS3 being 80 million WOULD NOT QUALIFY. A prediction of 80 million PS3s and 90 million Wiis WOULD QUALIFY (IMO) because (as I see it) it ignores proportionality in sales: you can only justify those PS3 numbers IMO by saying the console market in general will see historic sales totals -- a rising tide lifts all boats and so on. I made fun of RolStoppable's prediction "The Wii will have at least tripled the combined sales of the 360 and PS3 once all three systems have stopped selling" but this DOES NOT QUALIFY. Many people are predicting 150 million for the Wii. Suppose it gets up to 210m while PS3 only hits 40m and the 360 languishes at 30m? There you are. Unlikely IMO but not crazy. Here is the inspiration for this thread, which also serves as Example A: ssj12: VGC12294 (12/17/07, 05:39) "I'm predicting around 28 million by the end of 2008." [Note: ssj12 says this was a typo and it is supposed to be 38 million, but I'm leaving it as an example of the kind of prediction this thread is supposed to be for. LTD for end of 2007 is going to be about 20 million. Production is 1.8 million. Demand currently exceeds production. "1.8 x 12 = 21.6, but [ssj12] expect[s] only about 10 million more than this year's LTD, which means more like 0.8 million a month for 2008." "Counting in the fact that sales early in the year are GUARANTEED to be closer to the 1.8 million figure, [sales would have to] dry up to around 500k per month after the first three or four months." Which they won't. (Note: I held on to this one for a while before starting it, so all my nominations are a bit old except for the one that reminded me to post.)
Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
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The old smileys: 
; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for 
, let me know!
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia. Thanks WordsofWisdom!
