June 2026 Circana (NPD) Thread + Predictions

[Shadow1980]

Haven't done one of these in forever, and it might be my last one in a long while, but I have posted charts in forever, so I'm just going to cross-post what I just posted over at Install Base verbatim.

First PlayStation & Xbox:

The PS5 did seem to weather the initial round of price increases in the U.S. mostly fine at first. There was not a pronounced drop in sales in September and October. Most of what had been hurting the PS5's 2025 compared to the PS4's 2018 was that A) Q1 2018 was a 14-week period instead of the usual 13-week period, B) Q2 2018 saw April get a big boost from God of War and June get a boost from limited edition PS4 Slims and a $50 price cut to the Pro, and C) Q3 2018 got a big boost from Spider-Man, and D) the PS4 retained strong momentum in October due to the release of Red Dead 2. Outside April, June, September, and October the PS5's 2025 sales compared favorably to the PS4's 2018.

However, the PS5's sales took a massive hit during the holidays, despite Sony actually issuing some decent Black Friday promotions. It was the worst holiday season for PlayStation in the U.S. since 2021 when shortages hit hard, and was a significant drop from the 2022-24 holiday seasons. However, Q1 2026 sales were actually slightly better than the PS4's Q1 2019. But then we got the April price increase, and that's when things started to go back for the PS5. While Q2 is typically a relatively slower period for console sales (April & May are often the slowest months of the year for hardware), the PS5 experienced a far more pronounced drop than usual for a console under "normal" circumstances (though this generation has been anything but normal). At approximately 390k units sold, it was not only the only quarter in the past two generations to fail to exceed 500k units, it was the slowest non-holiday quarter for a PlayStation console in the U.S. pre-replacement since the PS3's Q3 2013. In fact, from launch to Q3 2013, the PS3 only had three quarters where it failed to exceed 400k units. The PS2's first sub-400k quarter was Q1 2009, over two years after the PS3's release.

Price increases are finally starting to have their effect on the PS5, and will hamper its ability to stay ahead of the PS4, at least for a while. Q4 2025's disappointing sales cost it much of its LTD lead, and looking into next year it's probably going to struggle against the PS4's 2020 due to the big COVID boost. However, the PS4 experienced stock depletion later in 2020, so the PS5 could regain its lead, and if the PS6 doesn't come out until 2028 (which seems likely), that could allow the PS5 to ultimately pull back ahead. There is the caveat of the optics of and potential blowback to Sony's decision to kill discs. It may not have as much impact on the PS5 as it will already be on its way out or close to it after the start of 2028, but next generation will be... interesting.

The Xbox Series is continuing to struggle. As I've said in previous threads where I posted charts like these, the problems started with the "Everything is an Xbox" campaign that was followed by numerous series that were normally console exclusive to Xbox were being released to PS5, giving the sense that that platform was becoming redundant. Beyond the optics, it was further hampered by multiple rounds of price increases in 2025 and 2026. Oddly enough, though the XBS's performance this June was in terms of weekly averages the best it has done outside the holidays since April of last year. Small victories, and all. While the damage has already been done to the XBS, if MS plays their cards right and reads the room regarding the blowback against Sony's decision to kill discs, I could see them doing a turnaround in terms of market share if the Helix retains a disc drive, if only as an option. Total combined volume of PS6 & Helix sales, though, are likely to be down significantly gen-over-gen due to the extremely high likelihood of very high launch prices, but market share is something that could still shift depending on other factors.


Now for Nintendo:

Despite the somewhat disappointing holiday performance of the Switch 2 last year that followed a record-setting launch and a strong Q3, the Switch 2 went back to outpacing the Switch 1 this year. Sales in the first half were estimated to be over 1.8M units, compared to 1.52M for the Switch in H1 2018, and, as mentioned earlier, that's with Q1 2018 being a 14-week period instead of usual 13 weeks. However, the Switch has pending price increases in the U.S., with the system increasing $50 on Sept. 1. It's going to be hard to tell how much of an impact this will have, but looking at the future, starting from Q4 of this year the Switch 2 may start to struggle against the Switch 1, especially if there are any further price increases to the system. The Switch 1 experienced further growth all throughout 2019, and then in 2020 we had the impact of the COVID boom. I don't see the Switch 2 experiencing that kind of growth going into next year barring some newer cheaper model (like a Lite or a home console-only model) and its 2028 certainly won't be anything like the Switch 1's 2020. While the Switch 2 will not be a failure by any stretch and should continue to do well enough for itself, there is a very high likelihood that it will fall well short of its predecessor. I still think it will easily surpass 100M worldwide, but reaching that elusive 150M+ threshold that only three systems have ever passed will probably be impossible at this point.



Video game consoles are in a precarious position right now. This decade has been marked by an industry hobbled by mostly external factors (COVID-induced PS5 & XBS shortages, Trump's tariffs, the Iran War, and the rise of generative "A.I."), then Sony pulling the trigger and executing physical games on their platform to widespread protest, and we're also looking down the barrel of $1000+ next-gen consoles. While I don't expect a 1983-style crash, we could be looking at major contractions, with some of the lowest sales in generations. Nintendo will be doing mostly fine, but combined PS & Xbox sales could reach their lowest levels ever in the face of $1000+ launch prices and many customers abandoning both of them entirely if Xbox also decides to go all-digital. Consoles, especially the conventional ones with the highest specs, are likely to end up being increasingly niche as many customers are simply priced out. While software sales have technically gotten cheaper over time, even with price increases this generation, the biggest barrier to entry is the hardware itself. Even accounting for inflation, right now the PS5 & XBS are more expensive than any other systems were at this relative point in their lives, and the PS6 & Helix will potentially be the most expensive major consoles at launch, exceeding even the PS3's adjusted launch price ($829 & $994 in June 2026 dollars for the 40GB & 80GB SKUs, respectively).

And that's it for me for now, I may still drop by on occasion and even post here and there, but with my enthusiasm for the future of gaming having taken a huge hit after last month's news, I'm just kinda burned out on video game discussions online for now. I did want to get those charts out of my system, and some of them I will be adding to my long-gestating blog article about the history of game sales (people still blog, right?), but within the next couple of years I may get out of talking game sales entirely depending on how things go.