Alternate history: Nintendo makes the Wii a generation earlier

[EricHiggin]

Soundwave said:

EricHiggin said:

There's some things OP didn't tackle that might put a bit of a snag in those 3rd party points, like what is the 2001 Wii's physical media type? Same as the GCN or 2006 Wii? It's something to consider, but for the sake of ease, let's just say it's the 2006 Wii's, so there's no reason for 3rd parties to have any problem with it back then.

Also to consider, how much would SNY moneyhat games for PS2 with Wii as the competition instead of the GCN? It would've been more difficult for SNY, and they wouldn't have been able to lock down near as much, but we're all aware of how they operate when it comes to this. Even if I were to assume devs and pubs wouldn't make those deals with SNY or Nin (aside from a rare few maybe), PS2 still get's all those 3rd party games in that case. It's not like it's the opposite where only Wii has all the big 3rd party titles and PS2 doesn't.

I think you're underestimating or not understanding the point I made about not underestimating the momentum SNY had due to PS1.

PS1 put SNY on the map, and in a big way. PS2 being handled so well just cemented that brand recognition from launch and throughout 6th gen. There was already plenty of brand loyalty at that point, and SNY had turned up the hype meter to 11 back then for PS2. It was a train you could simply attempt to slow down, and you weren't going to overtake it, even with this alternate reality.

Another pretty big part of that momentum was also Back Compat. For the first time, gamers didn't need to just jump into an entire new gen and rely on the brands to have large libraries of next gen quality software lineups ready. SNY could in a way, just transfer gamers from 5th gen to 6th gen. This was a huge deal and a very smart strategic move by SNY. Not only that but new gamers to the PS ecosystem, could future proof themselves by getting a PS2 asap, but didn't have to wait for games, and didn't have to spend top dollar on the newest next gen games. Newcomers had a choice of thousands of PS1 games, which most of, were all dirt cheap by that point, new or used.

Nin's brand strength wouldn't have been as strong due to N64's continued downward sales trend, hurting 2001 Wii's potential, as well as lack of Back Compat. 2006 Wii had Back Compat, and was going up against a 3rd console cursed faltering SNY.

PS2 would not have hit 160M, and I agree, wouldn't have hit 150M either. This is where the total 6th gen sales come into play. If you think total sales stay the same, then that's one outlook, which would require me to rethink my numbers, but I strongly believe that a 2001 Wii would've increased sales substantially in this alternate timeline, leading to the numbers I ended up with.

PS2 - 140M,  Wii - 80M,  XB - 20M

Think you are massively underestimating the butterfly effect you're creating, this isn't even like changing a few little things, this would dramatically turn that whole generation on its ear. 

Sony just didn't have the 1st/2nd party studios to carry itself to those sales without a large disparity in 3rd party exclusives. Gran Turismo is popular sure, but Jak & Daxster and the like ain't getting you to 140 mill when the Wii has all the same games.

And the optical media would naturally have been DVD, the GameCube was DVD too, Nintendo just chose to make some dumb tweaks to it. 

The margins between success and failure are thinner I think than people realize, if you change  that many things, a generation is no longer nothing like the one. 

For the record too I think the N64 would've demolished the PS1 if Nintendo had compromised and allowed CDs (even if it meant the cartridge port staying, the Saturn had both after all). Mario 64 and Zelda: OoT and GoldenEye, but also likely Final Fantasy and Metal Gear Solid and all the Resident Evil games? Game over. 

GCN used mini DVD which was physically smaller and only held 1/3 the data vs a standard DVD. It would be worthy to take into consideration, other than that I just went with Wii's standard DVD size disc, which OP also seems to think was the right call.

SNY's first party wasn't super large or super strong back then, but it wasn't nothing either. MS had enough big 3rd party games and that really didn't do squat for them. Now XB was still brand new, and didn't have Nin's brand strength, but just because you can get 3rd party games doesn't guarantee massive success either, even if you're a go to brand. PS3 had plenty of 3rd party support and yet Wii still beat it in 7th gen. That's the difference between doing pretty much 'everything' right with PS2 and 'everything' wrong with PS3, which leads SNY to PS4.

I'm fully aware that many things would change. You're the one who seems to think overall total 6th gen sales would remain the same for some reason. That's why I have PS2 down 20M and Nin is up 60M. 2001 Wii no doubt sells way more than GCN did with motion controls, and brings in many more consumers into the console gaming market. Yet still having GCN level hardware, I don't see 2001 Wii reaching its 101M. If it was full 2006 Wii hardware, just in 2001, then maybe it hits 101M, just like it actually did in gen 7.

I'd say if N64 had optical media, whether that meant both cartridge and optical, or just optical, I could see N64 gaining way more sales and PS1 losing sales. To the point where it would've been a much closer gen.

I'd also say, based on the 2001 Wii timeline, that Wii U still launches, around 2006/2007, and hilariously does better because of how terrible things go with PS3. SNY may have even pushed for motion controls in this scenario because of how well 2001 Wii does, just making their problems even worse than they already were with PS3. I'd say one way or another, Wii U sells 2X-3X as many units in this timeline during 7th gen.

The question then would become, what does Nin do between Wii U 2006/2007 and SW1 2017?