Alternate history: Nintendo makes the Wii a generation earlier

[EricHiggin]

Soundwave said:

EricHiggin said:

I did personally take into account that Wii would get more 3rd party games. I should've added that, as it was part of why I thought it would sell 80M, coming off of N64's 33M.

I also took into account the casuals and non gamers view of the Wii and it's motion tech. These people thought this was like stolen Area 51 alien tech, that was also being sold for pennies on the dollar, and that was in late 2006. Now just imagine 5 years earlier alongside PS2 in 2000/2001. Everyone's minds would've been absolutely melted, when it comes to the motion tech anyway.

Everyone would've noticed things that gen like how tiny the Wii console was compared to the PS2 and XB. They also would've obviously seen a major difference in the fact that PS2 and XB had rather typical looking controllers vs the Wii-mote and nun-chuck.

The reason why I think PS2 still ends up selling so well is the momentum SNY had due to PS1, which cannot be understated. The other is the DVD player. I know a lot of people who used the PS2 a considerable amount to play DVD movies, and for some of them it was solely for DVD movies, early on anyway when exclusive DVD players were far more expensive.

I also think the Wii in 6th gen definitely increases total overall 6th gen console sales. The Wii had the ability to get extreme casuals and non gamers to pick one up and enter (console) gaming. There's no doubt that you would get some PS2 (and XB) owners also buying a Wii that gen. I think because of this, my sales number breakdown would've been relatively accurate.

*I would also mention, Wii in 2001 for $249 seems way too good to be true from Nin. Even with GCN range hardware, the motion tech would've made it $299 min, probably higher. Which would also help explain why PS2 ends up still doing so well.

The Wii wouldn't just get "more third party support" it would basically get all of the PS2's third party support (same way the XBox 360 did vs the PS3) as well. 

High Wii sales with better than PS2 hardware would mean basically all developers would get told by the business suits that they have to make a port of any hit game on the Wii. MGS2, MGS3, Kingdom Hearts, GTA San Andreas, etc. etc.

The only studio that maybe Sony could exert pressure on would be Squaresoft, and even Squaresoft likely would've gone multiplat a gen earlier as soon as that Final Fantasy: Spirits Within movie flopped in 2001, leaving the company in a real bad financial spot. If the Wii was there and selling gangbusters, they likely jump ship to multiplat too.

Sony wouldn't sniff 150 mill, I don't even think they'd get far beyond 100 mill. Their 1st/2nd party in those days wasn't that strong, this is pre Uncharted, pre Last of Us, pre Spider-Man/Marvel deal. Gran Turismo was a big deal but the rest of their 1st/2nd party really wasn't. You're not getting to 150 riding on Jak & Daxster and SOCOM tier games. 

I actually wouldn't be that surprised if the Wii in this scenario just straight up outsells the PS2. Especially if they had Zelda: Twilight Princess and Mario Galaxy a gen earlier (those were really the successors to Zelda: OoT and Mario 64 that the public wanted). 

There's some things OP didn't tackle that might put a bit of a snag in those 3rd party points, like what is the 2001 Wii's physical media type? Same as the GCN or 2006 Wii? It's something to consider, but for the sake of ease, let's just say it's the 2006 Wii's, so there's no reason for 3rd parties to have any problem with it back then.

Also to consider, how much would SNY moneyhat games for PS2 with Wii as the competition instead of the GCN? It would've been more difficult for SNY, and they wouldn't have been able to lock down near as much, but we're all aware of how they operate when it comes to this. Even if I were to assume devs and pubs wouldn't make those deals with SNY or Nin (aside from a rare few maybe), PS2 still get's all those 3rd party games in that case. It's not like it's the opposite where only Wii has all the big 3rd party titles and PS2 doesn't.

I think you're underestimating or not understanding the point I made about not underestimating the momentum SNY had due to PS1.

PS1 put SNY on the map, and in a big way. PS2 being handled so well just cemented that brand recognition from launch and throughout 6th gen. There was already plenty of brand loyalty at that point, and SNY had turned up the hype meter to 11 back then for PS2. It was a train you could simply attempt to slow down, and you weren't going to overtake it, even with this alternate reality.

Another pretty big part of that momentum was also Back Compat. For the first time, gamers didn't need to just jump into an entire new gen and rely on the brands to have large libraries of next gen quality software lineups ready. SNY could in a way, just transfer gamers from 5th gen to 6th gen. This was a huge deal and a very smart strategic move by SNY. Not only that but new gamers to the PS ecosystem, could future proof themselves by getting a PS2 asap, but didn't have to wait for games, and didn't have to spend top dollar on the newest next gen games. Newcomers had a choice of thousands of PS1 games, which most of, were all dirt cheap by that point, new or used.

Nin's brand strength wouldn't have been as strong due to N64's continued downward sales trend, hurting 2001 Wii's potential, as well as lack of Back Compat. 2006 Wii had Back Compat, and was going up against a 3rd console cursed faltering SNY.

PS2 would not have hit 160M, and I agree, wouldn't have hit 150M either. This is where the total 6th gen sales come into play. If you think total sales stay the same, then that's one outlook, which would require me to rethink my numbers, but I strongly believe that a 2001 Wii would've increased sales substantially in this alternate timeline, leading to the numbers I ended up with.

PS2 - 140M

Wii - 80M

XB - 20M