EricHiggin said:
I did personally take into account that Wii would get more 3rd party games. I should've added that, as it was part of why I thought it would sell 80M, coming off of N64's 33M. I also took into account the casuals and non gamers view of the Wii and it's motion tech. These people thought this was like stolen Area 51 alien tech, that was also being sold for pennies on the dollar, and that was in late 2006. Now just imagine 5 years earlier alongside PS2 in 2000/2001. Everyone's minds would've been absolutely melted, when it comes to the motion tech anyway. Everyone would've noticed things that gen like how tiny the Wii console was compared to the PS2 and XB. They also would've obviously seen a major difference in the fact that PS2 and XB had rather typical looking controllers vs the Wii-mote and nun-chuck. The reason why I think PS2 still ends up selling so well is the momentum SNY had due to PS1, which cannot be understated. The other is the DVD player. I know a lot of people who used the PS2 a considerable amount to play DVD movies, and for some of them it was solely for DVD movies, early on anyway when exclusive DVD players were far more expensive. I also think the Wii in 6th gen definitely increases total overall 6th gen console sales. The Wii had the ability to get extreme casuals and non gamers to pick one up and enter (console) gaming. There's no doubt that you would get some PS2 (and XB) owners also buying a Wii that gen. I think because of this, my sales number breakdown would've been relatively accurate. *I would also mention, Wii in 2001 for $249 seems way too good to be true from Nin. Even with GCN range hardware, the motion tech would've made it $299 min, probably higher. Which would also help explain why PS2 ends up still doing so well. |
The Wii wouldn't just get "more third party support" it would basically get all of the PS2's third party support (same way the XBox 360 did vs the PS3) as well.
High Wii sales with better than PS2 hardware would mean basically all developers would get told by the business suits that they have to make a port of any hit game on the Wii. MGS2, MGS3, Kingdom Hearts, GTA San Andreas, etc. etc.
The only studio that maybe Sony could exert pressure on would be Squaresoft, and even Squaresoft likely would've gone multiplat a gen earlier as soon as that Final Fantasy: Spirits Within movie flopped in 2001, leaving the company in a real bad financial spot. If the Wii was there and selling gangbusters, they likely jump ship to multiplat too.
Sony wouldn't sniff 150 mill, I don't even think they'd get far beyond 100 mill. Their 1st/2nd party in those days wasn't that strong, this is pre Uncharted, pre Last of Us, pre Spider-Man/Marvel deal. Gran Turismo was a big deal but the rest of their 1st/2nd party really wasn't. You're not getting to 150 riding on Jak & Daxster and SOCOM tier games.
I actually wouldn't be that surprised if the Wii in this scenario just straight up outsells the PS2. Especially if they had Zelda: Twilight Princess and Mario Galaxy a gen earlier (those were really the successors to Zelda: OoT and Mario 64 that the public wanted).
