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SvennoJ said:
sundin13 said:

I agree with this general sentiment. More subtle long-term effects seem to be the most likely consequence of American missile deployment in Iran without much to show for it. While destroying their capabilities to build a nuke is a "win" in a sense, it's absurd that the prize for this whole war is something that Trump gave away in his first term...

However, I personally don't think that we are close to deploying troops to combat in Iran, nor do I think that the American media would support a war the same way they have in the past. I think Trump would get a lot of blowback for a decision to enter the war, which would only be amplified if troops lost their lives because of it.

It will lead to the opposite. Iran was not pursuing a nuclear weapon, but now Iran is turning against the IAEA and potentially considering dropping out of NPT.

Tulsi Gabbard is telling the truth

People are conflating enrichment with a nuclear weapon for obvious purposes, a former CIA analyst, Ray McGovern, tells Al Jazeera.

He said that the US administration seems to be “hell bent on dismissing all intelligence and going ahead with what they intend to do”.

“Tulsi Gabbard is telling the truth,” he said, referring to the United States President Donald Trump saying his director of national intelligence was “wrong” when she testified that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon.

“The intelligence community, no matter how bad it has been on Ukraine and other issues, has stayed firm on a judgment made unanimously … in November 2007, that Iran stopped working on a nuclear weapon at the end of 2003”, he noted.


It's all a load of hypocrite bullshit. Israel has about 90 nukes, Israel is not part of NPT (one of five countries, including North Korea, India, Pakistan and South Sudan, that are not signatories to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons) and is the prime destabilizing factor in the ME.

What Iran sees is NK openly helping Russia with troops and equipment to slaughter more Ukrainians, and gets left well alone. The rest of the world sees this as well, better have nukes if you want to survive Western imperialism or want to fuck over other countries.

The fallout from Trump bombing Fardow will be much greater than the US getting 'dragged' into a regional war over the ME. It will lead to a new nuclear arms race.

The effects of US/Israel destroying international law are already being seen in other conflicts. NPT is next on the list.




Anyway, it's not about nukes, it's about control over oil as usual. 

Trump, Netanyahu want a ‘controllable and not free Iran’

Iran could “easily become the hegemonic power in the region in a matter of a few years”, Professor Lorenzo Kamel, an assistant professor of global history and history in the Middle East and North Africa at the University of Turin, tells Al Jazeera.

Iran has the second-largest oil reserves in the world, the third-largest gas reserves, and approximately 90 million inhabitants, which creates a very strong internal market he said.

The potential of its oil and gas industry means that Trump and Netanyahu want a “controllable Iran, and not a free Iran”, Kamel explained.

This is not the first time the US had acted to control oil production, he noted, including the events of 1953, when the CIA, along with the UK’s MI6, orchestrated the overthrow of Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh, who had moved to nationalise Iran’s oil industry from the British-owned Anglo-Iranian Oil Company.

Whether or not you think that Iran was building towards a nuke, they had built the capacity to produce a nuke rather quickly. I do think this is a concern, but I don't think it is grounds for war. I think it is grounds for diplomacy, which this war has sabotaged. I agree that it certainly does seem like any reason to trust in international order has quickly vanished between this conflict and Ukraine. There is the appearance that the only way to maintain your own safety is to have nukes instead of trusting other nuclear powers.