US Politics |OT|

[sundin13]

Ryuu96 said:

sundin13 said:

I'll preface this again with the fact that I am against War with Iran, but as far as consequences for the US go, what consequences could we actually expect if our offensive involvement doesn't go past firing missiles from hundreds of miles away? I don't think there is any scenario where US death toll is higher than the Iraq War, unless we put troops in Iran (which does not seem to be likely at this time). 

My expectations as someone who is not an expert in military engagements would be missiles directed at US bases and assets in the Middle East with a minor death toll (single digits to low double digits), an increased terror threat on American soil and an increased risk of the conflict escalating by the involvement of additional countries (which would certainly change the calculus). 

Does anyone have any information that would challenge these assumptions?

There's a lot of US bases within range of Iranian missiles and bombing campaigns are unlikely to result in regime change and instead backfire into uniting the populace against the bomber, especially when the bomber has a disregard for civilian collateral which America tends to have and Israel definitely has, which would be a real shame because Iranian populace right now hates the current regime but America and Israel could fuck all of that up and turn peoples hatred towards Israel and America instead of at the current regime.

"There are currently no indications that the central government in Tehran is losing control — quite the opposite. The Iranian regime appears to be tightening its grip," the three officials said. "Most Iranians are hostile to the regime and oppose it, but there is a sense of national solidarity at the moment. Right now, the people are focused on one thing: survival.

"When they see Israeli strikes causing casualties and destruction — even if the regime is unpopular — the immediate threat is seen as Israel. That's why people are rallying around the flag. I emphasize — not around the regime, but most of their anger is currently directed at Israel."

Israel's Strikes on Iran: No Signs of Regime Instability Since Operation | The Jerusalem Post

So what comes next if aerial bombing doesn't result in regime change? What comes next after Iran bombs the shit out of US military bases and kills American soldiers? US media will suddenly start beating the drums of war and saying "we need revenge for our American troops! Destroy Iran!" and that is when I fear American troops on the ground will happen.

I agree with this general sentiment. More subtle long-term effects seem to be the most likely consequence of American missile deployment in Iran without much to show for it. While destroying their capabilities to build a nuke is a "win" in a sense, it's absurd that the prize for this whole war is something that Trump gave away in his first term...

However, I personally don't think that we are close to deploying troops to combat in Iran, nor do I think that the American media would support a war the same way they have in the past. I think Trump would get a lot of blowback for a decision to enter the war, which would only be amplified if troops lost their lives because of it.