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Norion on 14 January 2025
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Shtinamin_ said:
Norion said:
Shtinamin_ said:

I expect 33% because the Switch will be the “cheapâ€Â console when the successor releases. I also expect a later release in the year (anytime from mid-Summer to November). Considering that it sold around 3.1M this year selling around 2M will be simple as the franchises that release solely on Switch will help boost sales (even if it’s just for a week or two). And Switch skin releases will boost sales as well.

And yes as of January 5 Switch has shipped a minimum of 36.62M consoles in Japan. So with the “goalâ€Â of 2M will bring us to ~38.62M and in 2026 it should sell near 1M.

I personally set a goal of the Switch selling 39.11M units in Japan. And it seems I need to increase that goal once more. So if 2025 sells 2M and 2026 sells 1M the Switch should be near 39.62M units. And since Nintendo said they will continue to support the Switch into 2027, we can make an assumption that it’ll sell an additional 0.5M reaching 40.12M units shipped. After 2027 I expect Nintendo to stop manufacturing Switch units and reaching the new goal of ~40.12M units shipped.

This ignores that the most expensive model the OLED is the vast majority of Switch's sold in Japan now and people aren't gonna continue spending that much for one of those if they can spend not that much more and get a vastly better piece of hardware that'll have a much, much longer life ahead of it. The Switch Lite will help but that can only do so much since it's not that popular.

Like I said the Switch (any model) will be the “cheap” option. (This is optimistic) maybe they will have a price cut/bundles for the Switch models. 
But you are correct OLED is the seller in Japan. With Lite being about 1/2 the OLED sold.

My guess is only the Lite will be cheap enough to potentially stay relevant after it launches though you are right that bundles could also help since it seems to have made a notable difference the past couple months. It's actually a lot less than half, the Lite sold only about a third of what the OLED sold last year in Japan and the regular model understandably doesn't sell that much any more so the OLED was about 70% of switch's sold in Japan last year.