Famitsu sales Week 52, 2024 - Week 1, 2025 (23/12/24 - 5/1/25)

[Shtinamin_]

Norion said:

PAOerfulone said:

It's already shipped 35.62 million units as of Sept 30 according to Nintendo themselves

Since then, it has sold around another 1 million in Q4 2024, which would put it right under or exactly 37 million units shipped as of Dec 31. From there it'd only need to ship another 3 million from 2025 onwards to reach 40 million.

Even if it were to decline 50% this year, that's still another 1.5-1.6 million units sold to consumers. Add that to what could very well be the latest shipment figure depending on Nintendo's next Investor's Meeting in early February - That would put it around 38.5 million units (~37 million shipped at the end of December + the 1.5-1.6 million in projected sales in 2025) and that doesn't include how much it ships in 2025, which could very well bring the number closer to 39 million.

From there, it would just need another ~1 million from 2026 onwards to reach the goal.

I just remembered that Famitsu doesn't track all of the sold Switch's so the actual number currently sold is probably closer to 36m than 35m. That does make it less unreasonable though I'd still consider it really unrealistic since the Switch should basically collapse soon after the Switch 2 launches like the DS did after the 3DS. Factors like the Lite could help it avoid falling off quite as fast as that but even about 38m sold by the end of this year would put 40m firmly of the table I'd say and I'd consider that an optimistic outlook since a late 2025 launch would be required for it.

Shtinamin_ said:

I expect 33% because the Switch will be the “cheapâ€Â console when the successor releases. I also expect a later release in the year (anytime from mid-Summer to November). Considering that it sold around 3.1M this year selling around 2M will be simple as the franchises that release solely on Switch will help boost sales (even if it’s just for a week or two). And Switch skin releases will boost sales as well.

And yes as of January 5 Switch has shipped a minimum of 36.62M consoles in Japan. So with the “goalâ€Â of 2M will bring us to ~38.62M and in 2026 it should sell near 1M.

I personally set a goal of the Switch selling 39.11M units in Japan. And it seems I need to increase that goal once more. So if 2025 sells 2M and 2026 sells 1M the Switch should be near 39.62M units. And since Nintendo said they will continue to support the Switch into 2027, we can make an assumption that it’ll sell an additional 0.5M reaching 40.12M units shipped. After 2027 I expect Nintendo to stop manufacturing Switch units and reaching the new goal of ~40.12M units shipped.

This ignores that the most expensive model the OLED is the vast majority of Switch's sold in Japan now and people aren't gonna continue spending that much for one of those if they can spend not that much more and get a vastly better piece of hardware that'll have a much, much longer life ahead of it. The Switch Lite will help but that can only do so much since it's not that popular.

Like I said the Switch (any model) will be the “cheap” option. (This is optimistic) maybe they will have a price cut/bundles for the Switch models. 
But you are correct OLED is the seller in Japan. With Lite being about 1/2 the OLED sold.