Famitsu sales Week 52, 2024 - Week 1, 2025 (23/12/24 - 5/1/25)

[Shtinamin_]

Norion said:

Shtinamin_ said:

I agree with your prognosis. I expect around a 33% decline YoY for the Switch in Japan for 2025 even with the successor on the field.

Why do you expect only a decline of around 33%? The DS completely fell of a cliff in 2011 so the only scenario I can see the decline having any chance of being that modest is if it's a late 2025 release for the Switch 2 which seems unlikely.

PAOerfulone said:

Even with a late 2025 release I don't see how 40m is even a remote possibility cause in that scenario it should sell at most 1m in 2026 and it definitely isn't selling another 2m after that year.

It's already shipped 35.62 million units as of Sept 30 according to Nintendo themselves

Since then, it has sold around another 1 million in Q4 2024, which would put it right under or exactly 37 million units shipped as of Dec 31. From there it'd only need to ship another 3 million from 2025 onwards to reach 40 million.

Even if it were to decline 50% this year, that's still another 1.5-1.6 million units sold to consumers. Add that to what could very well be the latest shipment figure depending on Nintendo's next Investor's Meeting in early February - That would put it around 38.5 million units (~37 million shipped at the end of December + the 1.5-1.6 million in projected sales in 2025) and that doesn't include how much it ships in 2025, which could very well bring the number closer to 39 million.

From there, it would just need another ~1 million from 2026 onwards to reach the goal.

I expect 33% because the Switch will be the “cheap” console when the successor releases. I also expect a later release in the year (anytime from mid-Summer to November). Considering that it sold around 3.1M this year selling around 2M will be simple as the franchises that release solely on Switch will help boost sales (even if it’s just for a week or two). And Switch skin releases will boost sales as well.

And yes as of January 5 Switch has shipped a minimum of 36.62M consoles in Japan. So with the “goal” of 2M will bring us to ~38.62M and in 2026 it should sell near 1M.

I personally set a goal of the Switch selling 39.11M units in Japan. And it seems I need to increase that goal once more. So if 2025 sells 2M and 2026 sells 1M the Switch should be near 39.62M units. And since Nintendo said they will continue to support the Switch into 2027, we can make an assumption that it’ll sell an additional 0.5M reaching 40.12M units shipped. After 2027 I expect Nintendo to stop manufacturing Switch units and reaching the new goal of ~40.12M units shipped.