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Norion said:

My guess is week 1 is somewhat higher than week 52 but even with that it means the Switch's 2024 ended at 3.1m which is extremely impressive for its age and notably higher than my expectations early in the year of about 2.7m. The Switch not being released late last year helped of course but still it's still quite the feat for it to be up in December and its starting of this year strong too though it looks likely that the Switch 2 will start impacting it really soon so there's probably just a few months of good sales left but with it now at 35m that's not even remotely an issue. A decline of only a bit under 25% is great but it could be over 50% this year but even with that 37m would still be possible.

The PS5 had a surprisingly good couple weeks with week 52 leaving at it at nearly 1.5m for 2024 which isn't bad by itself but over 40% down is rough even with 2023 being abnormally high and it's notably lower than the nearly 1.8m the PS4 did in its equivalent year. The price cut will keep hurting but at least Wilds is around the corner to help out the first stretch of the year so about 1.3m seems likely for it this year but things could get rough in 2026 once the Switch 2 is properly established.

Overall 2024 was weaker than the previous few years for the Japanese market but 2025 and the rest of this decade in general should be really strong for it mostly thanks to the Switch 2 so it's an exciting time for it for sure.

Also @Sephiran you should update the OP with the hardware numbers.

I agree with your prognosis. I expect around a 33% decline YoY for the Switch in Japan for 2025 even with the successor on the field.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.