I think is plausible on both accounts.
Software will only be up and scale with hardware sales. Their 205m projection for this fiscal year hasn't been updated since summer so is probably out of date and they will hit 210-215m this year.
Although there will be no AC size hit, there will be even more ever greens including AC, 3D World and the older ones won't stop selling. There will be a few 10m sellers in that fiscal year (MHR- excluding launch week), Pokemon Remakes, Pokemon Legends which will make up for the lack of a single AC size smash. Other smaller titles like Mario Golf/Pokemon Snap/Skyward Sword/MH Stories will sell around 3-5m each. Much more 3rd party support. But yeah, it does allude to one big holiday title that doesn't have a release date. BOTW2 alongside a new switch would make a lot of sense and sell over 10m for sure. I'm assuming Splatoon 2 will not arrive before March 2022.
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