| sundin13 said: According to 538, Swearengin has less that 1% chance of winning this seat and is down by about 24 points. Polling from early October had Capito up 20 points. It probably would be best to put your hopes elsewhere. |
538 has practically no data. The only one is this single poll you cite. But 538 has even a wider spread than the poll between the two based entirely on demographics. Because we have data how demographics elect democrats or republicans. This says not much about concrete candidates and their work. And the single poll (you really can look at 538's database, before this poll come the ones from 2018 about Manchin) is not a strong datapoint either. It has asked 450 people and is a more or less middling pollster.
So has Swearengin a good chance? Probably not, because it is a very red state. But is it that clear-cut, as this one percent probability says? Actually not, as the model of 538 needs data, and the data just isn't there. IMHO 538 shouldn't forecast so underpolled races. A good model is still not working too well with not enough data. I would put great trust into their presidential forecast or forecast for senate races that are polled better. But in this case the forecast doesn't say much more as pundits do based on stuff like last races and demographic composition. This points into the direction of a republican win. But it says nothing about the influence of the candidate. Can Swearengin turn this much of a difference? Doubtful, but one can hope.
