First I want to comment on the raised possibility they buy EA. I highly doubt that. It is not so much that EA is toxic - everything they touch dies (really, even Bioware is dead, look at Anthem). There are practical business reasons. The most prolific EA-franchises at this point are licenced games. The licence holders will restrict strongly MS ability to do anything serious with such an acquisition. In the worst case they might give the licenses to someone else. Remember the licences do not only include all the sports stuff, but also Star Wars. The second reason is the business model of EA. Many countries are currently investigating gambling in games and might decide to put regulation on that. Such a move would seriously hamper the current cashflow of EA and instantly drop their value. But even if it doesn't get regulated - how well matches the income model of FIFA with Gamepass? Putting this game on Gamepass would be basically an insult, as it is not more than a shopfront disguised as a game. No, I doubt MS willbuy EA.
About the exclusivity of Bethesda games - I seriously believe there is no final decision as of yet. Sony and MS are about to enter their next generation. I think MS will wait and see how that develops. If Xbox fails and PS5 thrives, then I see also future Bethesda IP on PS5. If it is the other way around MS will not bother. If both fight for the crown, than MS probably will use targeted exclusivity of key IPs to boost their console.
