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noshten said:

Ring Fit Adventure heading to 15M EOY World Wide, over 30M lifetime

Resell price has gone down a bit from ¥14,000 in mid August to ¥12,000 in September. Its still 50% profit compared to its retail price for resellers/scalpers. 

Ring Fit Adventure sales in Japan by Quarter:

  • 2020 Q3: 495.639(new)
  • 2020 Q1: 249.488(-49.66%)
  • 2020 Q2: 328.387(+31.62%)
  • 2020 Q3: 346.423(+5.49%)

There are three weeks left for Ring Fit Adventure until the end of Q3, if Nintendo ships 50K on average the performance of the game prior to the holidays will actually be stronger than it's launch quarter. Still, we've seen supply fluctuate and the average so far this quarter has been 28K, I hope we actually see a big shipment to end the quarter strongly. So I'm theorizing that although they are possibly stockpiling for the holidays they might be able to ship 200K right before the end of their fiscal quarter. For me, I'm still not entirely sure Nintendo will be able to supply 10 million copies for the remainder of the year but I think based on what we are seeing is that the game will easily surpass 3M in Japan this year if there was sufficient supply. 

  1. Wii Sports - 3.724.565
  2. Wii Fit - 3.561.787
  3. Wii Sports Resort - 3.165.464
  4. Ring Fit Adventure - 1.420.027

Ring Fit will end up selling above Wii Sports in Japan, by the simple virtue that the Wii only managed to sell 10M units in Japan, compare that to the Switch, the franchise is prime for growth. At the end of the day in Japan lifetime sales will probably end up beyond 5M because I don't think Nintendo will be in a hurry to release Ring Fit 2, I'd expect Wii Sports spiritual successor to not come until 2022 and it will probably utilize a different peripheral. Ring Fit is likely to be the only game that utilizes this specific peripheral this generation. So it would be a better idea of just updating this game from  

Aug Amazon update: 7 Aug

  • USA: #32 -> #18
  • Canada: #4
  • UK: #48 -> #54
  • France: #13 -> #7
  • Germany: #14 -> #7

Sep 6th Amazon:

  • USA: #41
  • Canada: #1
  • UK: outside Top 100
  • France: #16
  • Germany: #23

Media Create South Korea, Taiwan(last 5 weeks:

  • South Korea W31: #2; W32: #2; W33: #1;  W34: #1
  • Taiwan: W31: #3; W32: #2 W33: #2; W34: #1

In terms of Worldwide, we are seeing the game continue to perform very strongly in some of Nintendo's top markets. Based on these trends, I think we can expect Ring Fit Adventure to be around 7 million shipped by the end of the quarter. That's provided Nintendo is able to ship that many while stockpiling for the holidays. If there is sufficient stock built up for the holidays they could easily ship >15M Worldwide by the end of the year, with around 20% coming from Japan.

Also basing the popularity in Japan/South Korea/Taiwan - I'd expect the game to perform very strongly in China(it launched this week). Tencent is distributing the game and it doesn't contain the cartridge, and because it's being distributed and assembled to China, it's likely to be very profitable for both Nintendo and Tencent if ends up being the top-performing Switch game there. Tencent being the geniuses they are have been promoting it with unhealthy food. Overall China could end up being a major factor in the future growth of both the Switch and Ring Fit Sales worldwide if it ends up being the game that really becomes a mass fad there... I don't think supply problems for the rest of the World will ever be fully resolved. According to some users on Twitter the game sold-out online in China during it's launched(this has not been confirmed by a major news channel). 

Like I said a while ago, the creators of Wii Fit and Wii Sports are likely to have another game that could enter the zeitgeist and sell above 30 million. I don't think Nintendo has really pushed Ring Fit Adventure marketing-wise and they could very easily with a major update. But because it took them so long to scale up production after realizing it was a hit, now that production is finally at the scale needed - well sky and a sequel are the only limits. 

15 mil by the end of the year is extremely bold. Even if they had 7 mil by the end of the quarter like you propose, I don't see a world where they ship 8 mil in the holiday quarter alone. And 30 mil lifetime only seems possible to me if it completely explodes in China and that's a very big if.

It is indeed a monster in Japan though, so beating Wii Fit there is starting to seem probable, I'll give you that much.



Major Switch Titles Launch Aligned

2022 predictions:

  • Switch - 24m
  • PS5 - 15.5m
  • Xbox Series - 10m