ZhugeEX "Xbox One sales around 41m"

[Mnementh]

The_Liquid_Laser said:

curl-6 said:

The big 3 have "waited too long" before. PS3/360 weren't replaced until 7/8 years after they launched.

The PS3 waited 7 years, because it was such an ambitious console with ambitious specs.  It launched with a $500/$600 price tag.  It actually got a $400 model in 2007 which would be 6 years before the PS4 launch.  Also financial losses were a big factor why Sony waited to release the PS4.  It needed to make sure that it wouldn't sell at too much of a loss even at launch.

The PS4 was not considered to have ambitious specs when it launched.  Also Sony is not hurting financially like they were during the PS3 years.  There is no business reason for Sony to wait.  It is smarter business for them to release in 2019.

As for Microsoft, they are a wildcard.  They are still figuring out the console business in a lot of ways.  Also a lot of their strategy is around figuring out how to "punk" Sony in some way.  If they can upstage Sony then they will do it.  With the XBox360 they upstaged Sony by releasing a year early.  But they might come up with some new tactic for their next console.  We'll just have to wait and see.

Well, PS3 peaked 2011 and PS4 released end of 2013. As PS4 peaked 2017, a release at the end of 2019 seems not out of question.

But it is not that simple. PS4 dropped in 2018 around 10%, PS3 dropped 15% in 2012. More importantly: PS3-software-sales dropped by 13% in 2012, PS4-software sales grew by 6%! So maybe Sony is willing to sit out the PS4 for a bit longer. Late in cycle they can cash in more on games, royalties and probably on hardware (PS4 also has no pricecut for some time). If sales start to drop more significantly, especially for software the new gen will come.

So, as I see it Sony might be comfortable to wait out the new gen a bit longer, as they have the sales on their side. That could still mean they drop the PS5 in the holidays this year, if sales drop sharply in 2019 (although the still have the pricecut card in their hands), but may wait a little longer if sales are fine. So maybe early 2020 (like Switch) or holidays 2020. I expect no later launch.

This comfortable sales situation is even better for Sony, as they possibly can wait out for MS to make the first move. They can access the main marketing points for the new XBox and counter it.

MS is in a more dire situation. The sales peaked back in 2015, and while the sales still decrease slowly, they decrease. On the software side of things it looks better though, still good sales. Also MS is not in need of cash. So I'm not sure about them. They may target a 2019 launch ... or not.