Japan sales (Week 26) Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - June 25 - July 1, 2018

[Mnementh]

nero said:

Mnementh said:

Well, baseline is not a scientific term, it is something to gauge momentum and predict the coming weeks. Basically it is: what would the console sell wihtout sales, holidays and new games. But that is obviously problematic, because without these the console would stop selling altogether. Your graph is actually helpful. You see the monstrous Monster Hunter peak for PS4, the Golden week peak for both consoles and some other peaks that probably match with some game release if we would look for it. The other weeks are more 'normal' weeks.

If you look for some way to make a formula which calculates it always the same way, I may suggest the following: You already calculated the average. We can easily say that all above average is extraordinary and created by holidays, sales or game releases. So take the below average weeks and make an average for them. Or even better - replace the average in both cases with the median, if your tool supports it. Median is more stable against a few extreme values (like the Monster Hunter peak). So the median of all weeks below the overall median. But that's just my personal suggestion.

Thanks for your insight. Just did some calculation and these values might be the baseline of both consoles:

SW: 38126

PS4: 22627

If that would be correct, then I'll update the chart

Well, as I said correct cannot be said, as baseline is nothing really fixed, but more or less guesswork. But people are saying for some time something around 40K baseline for Switch and 20K for PS4, so it looks like in a good ballpark.