nero said:
Thanks. You're right, I wanted to throw a baseline but didn't know how to make it. If it's low-end sales then I can do that. Will update it the graph as average. So hoy do you exactly get baseline? |
Well, baseline is not a scientific term, it is something to gauge momentum and predict the coming weeks. Basically it is: what would the console sell wihtout sales, holidays and new games. But that is obviously problematic, because without these the console would stop selling altogether. Your graph is actually helpful. You see the monstrous Monster Hunter peak for PS4, the Golden week peak for both consoles and some other peaks that probably match with some game release if we would look for it. The other weeks are more 'normal' weeks.
If you look for some way to make a formula which calculates it always the same way, I may suggest the following: You already calculated the average. We can easily say that all above average is extraordinary and created by holidays, sales or game releases. So take the below average weeks and make an average for them. Or even better - replace the average in both cases with the median, if your tool supports it. Median is more stable against a few extreme values (like the Monster Hunter peak). So the median of all weeks below the overall median. But that's just my personal suggestion.
