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I assume for all three titles, that they are good games with good general scores. If they arew bad entries, the legs will be bad and the game will fall short.

I start with Prime 4, as this seems the easiest guess. If the game is good as stated above it should be easily outsell any previous entry. Prime was on the GC, with a userbase that Switch will clearly increase upon. Even better, the Switch base includes core gamers, that also got Doom, Skyrim and other core games. Switch also attracted Core gamers that usually avoid Nintendo platforms. So for many it's the first possibility to try a Metroid game. It should easily go past 3M, with luck and a really good game it could break 5M.

Animal Crossing is a bit more difficult. But as you said, the 10M mark should be possible in any case. I don't know too much, but I just assume it can beat the previous entries, if the game is no failure and the surroundings are quite right.

Pokemon could be a problem. Not only is Red/Blue massive, there are more problems. So far Pokemon was on relatively inexpensive handhelds and had moderate handehld game prices. Both goes up. As a big portion (not all, but a significant portion) of the Pokemon gamers are kids, I see problems here. So far I don't see parents giving Switches to kids. So that might be a problem. Maybe that changes with Labo, but that is yet to be seen.

On the other hand a Pokemon on the Switch could be a massive step-up. The better graphics, improved gameplay and playing on the TV could bring back old fans that gave up on the series.

So I'm a bit torn about Pokemon. Currently I would conservatively assume it falls short of the goal, but that stance might change if we learn more about the development of the Switch and the new Pokemon game.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [GTA6]