| Dr.Vita said: I would already be really surprised if it outsells the PS1 numbers but similar numbers to PS2? Haha, this won't be happening! ;) |
PS1 and Wii numbers (which are basically the same) seem like the current target of the sales-curve as Switch sells similar to Wii. Wii sales curve stopped unusually early, so if we assume the same for Switch, it would land at similar numbers, so around 100M. If Switch has a longer tail than Wii (sales aren't falling from a cliff but fading out) it could outsell Wii/PS. Naturally momentum can change a bit over time, but even if momentum starts to dwindle for Switch (pretty unlikely as Pokemon is coming), 80M are pretty much set at this point. To sell lower something desastrous and unexpected would've to happen.
So, if you would be surprised if Switch reaches PS1 numbers, your analysis is off.
By the way: the same way I think a dwindling momentum is hard to achieve, I see it also as difficult to have an major increase in momentum, especially if you start already from high momentum as the Switch does. So the same argument that says PS1 numbers are likely, the same argument says PS2 numbers are pretty unlikely.
