Prediction: PS4 - 130 million Hardware, 1.6 billion Software lifetime

[Mnementh]

LethalP said:

Mnementh said:

PS4 should be peaking this year. So 100M should be easy, beyond that can be more difficult. It depends strongly on how fast the PS5 gets adopted. If it is slow like with PS3, the previous console could sell decently for years. If PS5 starts strong, then PS4 will decline fast.

Agree with that somewhat. If the PS5 releases 2018 for example and it's a hit, the PS4 might just about make it to PS1/Wii numbers when it's discontinued. But if PS5 releases in November 2020, the PS4 will sell 100 million before it's even released. PS5 backwards compatibility could kill PS4 sales too, but it's doing over 100 mill in any case.

Yeah, Release time is a factor. I expect PS5 2019. 100M should be a sure thing as I said, probably a bit past depending on when the PS5 releases, so even 110M should be a thing. If PS5 comes late or starts bad then 130M are possible.