Barkley said:
You'd imagine post-launch predictions of future success would be easier to nail down then the 2m forecast they made for launch even before their pre-launch events. But yes I'd imagine a forecast of 12.74m shipped by the end of March 2018 heavily indicates people predicting 15m+ (or even 17.5m) sold to consumers are reaching too high. |
Shipment forecast is guesswork as the forum predictions. Main factor is demand: Nintendo can only ship as much as is demanded by retail, which is driven by demand of the consumer. So they guess retail will demand 10M units over the year. Alone from this clearcut-number you see a lot of uncertainty, they don't say the project 9.56M units. So, if demand dies down in the coming months this number can be as low as 5 million or even less. On the other hand if demand is surging with Mario Kart, Splatoon, Arms and later in the year Mario, than it can go up to 15M or even more. It can go either way. Let's wait and see.
