Bloomberg: Nintendo Traders Signal Switch Could Be Bigger Hit Than the Wii

[Mnementh]

Wyrdness said:

Mnementh said:

That comparison is ridiculous. As the reference is the day before launch, expectations are priced into the reference. For the Wii the expectations were high before launch, so it's shares were already traded high on launch day. WiiU obviously was after launch below expectations, Switch is above. But I doubt the expectations were as high as with Wii to begin with.

Where did you get this mate because expectations for the Wii were far from high people back then were predicting that gen to be the one Nintendo does a SEGA.

Or to illustrate my point...

Nintendo-share in the year leading up to the Wii-launch: https://de.finance.yahoo.com/chart/NTO.F#eyJjdXN0b21SYW5nZUVuZCI6MTE2Mzk3NzE5OSwiY3VzdG9tUmFuZ2VTdGFydCI6MTEzMjQzNzYwMCwibXVsdGlDb2xvckxpbmUiOmZhbHNlLCJib2xsaW5nZXJVcHBlckNvbG9yIjoiI2UyMDA4MSIsImJvbGxpbmdlckxvd2VyQ29sb3IiOiIjOTU1MmZmIiwibWZpTGluZUNvbG9yIjoiIzQ1ZTNmZiIsIm1hY2REaXZlcmdlbmNlQ29sb3IiOiIjZmY3YjEyIiwibWFjZE1hY2RDb2xvciI6IiM3ODdkODIiLCJtYWNkU2lnbmFsQ29sb3IiOiIjMDAwMDAwIiwicnNpTGluZUNvbG9yIjoiI2ZmYjcwMCIsInN0b2NoS0xpbmVDb2xvciI6IiNmZmI3MDAiLCJzdG9jaERMaW5lQ29sb3IiOiIjNDVlM2ZmIn0%3D

Nintendo-share in the year leading up to the Switch-launch: https://de.finance.yahoo.com/chart/NTO.F#eyJjdXN0b21SYW5nZUVuZCI6MTQ4ODU4MTk5OSwiY3VzdG9tUmFuZ2VTdGFydCI6MTQ1NzA0MjQwMCwibXVsdGlDb2xvckxpbmUiOmZhbHNlLCJib2xsaW5nZXJVcHBlckNvbG9yIjoiI2UyMDA4MSIsImJvbGxpbmdlckxvd2VyQ29sb3IiOiIjOTU1MmZmIiwibWZpTGluZUNvbG9yIjoiIzQ1ZTNmZiIsIm1hY2REaXZlcmdlbmNlQ29sb3IiOiIjZmY3YjEyIiwibWFjZE1hY2RDb2xvciI6IiM3ODdkODIiLCJtYWNkU2lnbmFsQ29sb3IiOiIjMDAwMDAwIiwicnNpTGluZUNvbG9yIjoiI2ZmYjcwMCIsInN0b2NoS0xpbmVDb2xvciI6IiNmZmI3MDAiLCJzdG9jaERMaW5lQ29sb3IiOiIjNDVlM2ZmIn0%3D

As you can see, the year before the Wii-launch the Nintendo-share was on a constant rise. So the market was already building up expectations about the Wii. On the other hand last year, you had on big jump in expectation, but after that more or less constant value of the share. So the market was cautious. After launch the Wii matched expectations, that's why the share grew slowly but steady and Switch topped expectations, that's why the stronger growth.