According to VGC, the 3DS sold ~2.7 Million units in the US in 2014. If we are to expect a hefty drop in 2015 I wouldnt be surprised to see that number drop to 2 Million or lower (It was 4 Million in 2013).
If we assume VGC numbers are correct and the 3DS will end 2014 at ~14.5 Million, I think it would be fair to assume a 2015 total of ~16.5-17 Million units. After this I could see pretty big drops as Nintendo get ready to announce the successor. Fair to assume it ends 2016 sitting at an absolute maximum of 18.5 Million units?
2017/2018 will see the promotion/release of the next Nintendo handheld and if the 3DS does leg it to 20 Million in the US, it will be in this time frame.
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Moving on to the PS4 and Xbox One, I think both platforms will break 20 Million in the US fairly easily. We know that the PS4 can sell really well throughout the Year and we know that the Xbox One is only a pricecut away from matching the competition.
I think its fair to say that both platforms will increase YoY in the US thanks to new, exciting software finally releasing. The PS4 has big exclusives all throughout the Year (Bloodborne, MLB, Order, Ratchet and most importantly Uncharted 4) while the Xbox One has some real big hitters too (Halo, Fable, Tomb Raider). When you add in 3rd party developers finally leaving Gen 7 hardware behind, you get a whole bunch of new gamers jumping on board.
Eventual pricecuts on top of huge, system selling software?
I think both PS4 and Xbox One will see 7 Million Years in the US for 2015, bringing both platforms to 13/14 Million units. Could probably expect very similar numbers in 2016 as the platforms completely break free from Gen 7, have competitive pricepoints and have vibrant exclusive libraries.
PS4 reaches first, Xbox One reaches second, 3DS reaches it last.
