Can 3DS outsell PSP (lifetime)?

[Mnementh]

Seece said:

Mnementh said:

Seece said:

KingdomHeartsFan said:

The real question is what would have to happen for 3DS not to outsell the PSP.

For it to continue its current trajectory.

Let's see.

year	PSP	3DS
2005	9.6M
2006	9.5M
2007	12.8M
2008	14.0M
2009	9.9M
2010	9.2M
2011	7.5M	13.3M
2012	4.3M	14.5M
2013	3.1M	14.7M

Based on VGC yearly-charts. Looks for me, that current trajectory is above PSP. Also 3DS has already two years above the peak-year of PSP.

The problem with that is PSP was very steady for most of its life. No Nintendo system of late has shown that, when it starts falling it doesn't get back up again. See my thread on 3DS peaking in the first year in the US? (3DS looks overtracked to me as well).

Nintendo are gonna need something amazing to keep it anywhere near 14m this year.

You said the current trajectory suggests it wouldn't beat PSP. But the data shows, that the current trajectory shoots for way above PSP. Now you play a different song. I believe as you, that the 3DS will not have the same longevity as the PSP. But it is really hard to guess, which one will sell more. So you are ASSUMING it will drop in sales early enough, to prevent it from overtaking the PSP. That may happen or not, but it is nothing you can take from the data.