Mnementh on 18 February 2008
| kamil said: @Mnementh If you have 90% accuracy and the average accuracy is 95%, than you underperformed. If you have 50% accuracy and the average is 30%, you're a great predictor. Not really, I doubt many people won on PS3 bet. I checked the first 10 predictors and none of them got 96% accuracy (thus everyone lost money on that bet). Just becouse average predicition is close to real number doesn't mean that people actually bet very close to that number. When one guy bets 60k for a game, second 100k, and game sells 80k than average prediction accuracy is 100% but both guys lose money. The fact is that this rules drain money from system. |
You really have a point here, that all actually can lose on a bet. On the other hand, the fixed breaking even point (at 50% or 60% whatever) brings easy money in the system. Because most of the people are able to reach a 50% accuracy. More a problem is, it's easy to foresee, which prediction could be near and which could be off. Predictions for console are mostly very near the real stuff (remember the old prediction league, console-predictions brought the points). Same with titles with great legs: They sell every week nearly the same amount. Hard to predict on the other hand are new releases. With a fixed accuracy as break-even point it means I would put all my money on console-predictions and minimum bet on new releases.
