OceanJ said:
Such bitter-sweet results. I managed to sell my shares yesterday at 13.20, taking a loss, but protecting against the losses we see today...and potentially in the next couple weeks.
Investors don't care about artificial exchange-rate profits. They care about growth.
In earlier posts I correctly predicted revenue reduction to between 650 - 700b, based on Taruman's insight that Nintendo has NEVER had a quadruple multiple of 6-Month results to Fiscal Year End. What the F were Nintendo thinking setting 810B revenue, knowing that stat? I made a little chart of their revenue history comparing 6 month results to FY End over on the Nintendo Investors Thread.
I also guessed the revision down to 15m on 3DS sales...because they ended Dec 31 with 11m sold. But the revision for Wii U down to 4m was way lower than anyone could have guessed. The Wii U had its nightmare scenario come-true: Post-Holidays, sales fell off a cliff. No one outside of the hardcore Nintendo faithful are interested in the machine, right now. This isn't to say it won't make a comeback. And 24m to 16m in Wii U software, drastically bad...in my mind 16m is still an aggressive year-end goal.
Interestingly, the 11m Wii U software sales they reported for the quarter, you'll notice is more than double what's reported here on VGchartz. So - we see Nintendo is selling Digital Games at more than twice the rate! Just shows the rise of Digital-Downloads. And we can use this to predict whether or not Nintendo will hit their new 16m projection. I'm curious if Ninty counted the cheaper download games in the figure...guessing they must have.
And based on the last 2-weeks, 4m for Wii U by March 31 is not a gimme. 54k followed by 39k world-wide? I would be shocked to see a week bigger than 100k by 3/31. Ninty will have to pull some tricks out of their hats to move this machine. So despite FY Profit guidance raised to 14B, a price-cut is not out of the question for Wii U at all. To my mind it looks very likely.
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I'd also guess that they are counting the cheaper digital games, but I still don't think that the digital games sell that great. It's the beginning of the gen and WiiU had the most launch games in videogame history (or they were really close to having the most).
It was the holiday season and no one could predict how good their product would sell, but they had to make sure that every store has a few copies, so they shipped quite a lot obviously.
AC3, ME3, Darksiders 2, FIFA 13, Batman AC etc. will have several 100k on shelves.
We have NSMBU at 1.3m at the end of 2012, Nintendo has it at 2m shipped. How much room would be there for digital sales ? 20% at most.
Now they expect to ship 5m SW units more in the next quarter. 700k alone will be Nintendo Land (since they expect to ship 1m HW), ~600k NSMBU and the rest will mostly be new releases such as Rayman Legends, Need For Speed MW, MH3U in the west, Scribblenauts in Europe, Lego City Undercover, Dragon Quest X and Game & Wario in Japan.
