Update 2017-11-03: Well, this prediction has gone wrong all the way. While most of the things I hoped for to help the WiiU happened (price, competitors start a lot later, Miiverse, Virtual Console, eShop) the sales weren't pushed by that. The games hadn't the impact I hoped for. Even more: Just Dance to this day sells best on Wii, not helping the WiiU. I wasn't alone, you can see in the thread that most people expected something like that. And look in the poll, the current standing:
| > 500M | 9 | 9.78% |
|
| 200-500M | 1 | 1.09% |
|
| 150-200M | 0 | 0.00% |
|
| 100-150M | 8 | 8.70% |
|
| 50-100M | 54 | 58.70% |
|
| 30-50M | 14 | 15.22% |
|
| 15-30M | 1 | 1.09% |
|
| < 15M (Dreamcast) | 5 | 5.43% |
|
| Total: | 92 |
Original post:
I predict the WiiU will sell at least 50 million lifetime. It may sell 100M or even more, but at least 50 million.
That may not sound very bold (and probably isn't), but I don't have the feeling I can predict more until now, as I don't know about the price and other stuff. I'm not even know, if the WiiU will be the winner next-gen, and for a loser 50 million are much. And I say, it will sell 50 million units, even if PS4 or XBOX-next will win the next-gen.
Things that are in favor of this prediction:
- WiiU-pad allows for some new ways to play
- classic-controller
- good (but not excellent) list of 3rd-party games at the launch
- WiiFitU
- NSMBU
- Just Dance 4
- headstart into next-gen
Especially these 3 games I mentioned will help to give the WiiU a good start and a momentum, that will even guarantee for more sales as the competition has joined the game.
Things I hope for, that would help to reach that goal:
- price at launch is <300$/€
- Nintendoland is a pack-in (like Wii-Sports was)
- more games will be announced, so that every month next year at least some semi-big will come out
- Sony doesn't manage again, to kill a competitor only with rumors of the upcoming device (like they did with the Dreamcast)
- the competitors don't release earlier than Q4 2013 their next-gen-consoles
- Nintendo starts Mii-Universe (or whatever it is called) not later than Q1 2013
- Nintendo starts E-Shop not later than Q1 2013
- Virtual Console
- can transfer download-games and virtual-console-games from the Wii
- Nintendo doesn't kill off the WiiU early, like they did with the Wii
So, what do you think? How much will the WiiU sell lifetime?
Last edited by Mnementh - on 02 November 2017
