I believe Xbox 360 will win.
The 360 will undoubtfully get a pricecut.
I believe the ps3 will only get another psuedo pricecut during the holidays.
The ps3 has 0 big exclusive announced for this year. The Last of Us could indeed sell 3mil+ in the long run, but being a new ip, its initial sales will be rather low. 360 has Halo 4 which will push some sales with the right marketing and if 343 industries does a good job and makes a critically acclaimed game.
Halo, Star Wars Kinect, and probably Call of Duty will each have limited edition bundles that will probably sell 100k+ each. Kinect will be bigger again next year. I think microsoft supported it really well for the casuals this year, and word of mouth will lead to another huge holiday for it.
Console sales will diminish greatly in Japan. Won't really effect 360 in the great scheme of things, but ps3 will lose a good chunck of sales. The wii will no longer be stealing a lot of potential 360 customers next year. Enough dance games have been sold on kinect for word of mouth to work its magic. I think the 360 will become the party console of choice at least in America, and steal a big chunk of the Just Dance Wii crowd.
PS3 has a few things going for it as well. I think twisted metal will be very successful in America. It will be able to build up a decent lead over the nonholiday months. But microsoft has won the casuals over, and they will continue supporting the 360 next holiday. Its just that Sony just won't have a chance if microsoft is able to shift more units in the last 3 months of the year than sony can in the first 9months again.
