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Should be possible for both to happen...

Sony/Microsoft don't seem keen to move onto the next gen any time soon, home console-wise. Microsoft are getting amazing profits and Sony will at some point want to get alright profits too

Wii is pretty much dying. By this time next Year it should be selling something like ~50k per Week lol, if that.

Depends how long PS3/360 are kept on the market for without successors.