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jarrod said:

Looking at software sales, I don't find Wii and PSP all that comparable to be honest.  Never really have been either.

And if Nintendo were to just continue along as is with Wii, I think your scenraio would shift to more likely than not.  Unfortunately, that seems like a pretty remote scenario... Nintendo will jump first and that (in turn) will force the others hands earlier than they (or publishers) will probably want...

I was talking about the huge piracy and lack of 3rd party love. Not overall SW sales.

And Nintendo releasing a new console wont necessarily mean Sony/MS will also release one.