By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Gaming Discussion - Dragon Qust 10: The Snowball Effect

Words Of Wisdom said:
I think most of us realize that DQ10 isn't a real "killer app."

This is just another "The Wii will get serious 3rd party support when XYZ comes/happens" thread.

 

 I am sure you would be hail it as PS3 savior no. 67 if it were coming out on the PS3.

The West Still follows the east, especially the core gaming community.

HD fanboys down playing this are just in denial.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

Around the Network
Squilliam said:
Why would one game for an area of the world where home consoles are struggling overall effect the big picture at all that much?

Besides this, the Wii is NOT the PS2. Will never be like the PS2. It will not attract the most talented 3rd party developers, not now and not 2 years into the future. The platforms they are working on now will likely be the platforms they will be working on at the end of the generation, it doesn't make sense to retool for a different platform halfway through when they have established their tools, systems and franchises.
I'm just wondering what 3rd party developer you are referring to.

MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.

bigjon said:
Words Of Wisdom said:
I think most of us realize that DQ10 isn't a real "killer app."

This is just another "The Wii will get serious 3rd party support when XYZ comes/happens" thread.

 

 I am sure you would be hail it as PS3 savior no. 67 if it were coming out on the PS3.

The West Still follows the east, especially the core gaming community.

HD fanboys down playing this are just in denial.

 

And they said the same thing about DQIX on the DS. It was going to have no effect.

I just don't expect as big an effect on the Wii, but to have no effect? Please.



A flashy-first game is awesome when it comes out. A great-first game is awesome forever.

Plus, just for the hell of it: Kelly Brook at the 2008 BAFTAs

MANUELF said:
jammy2211 said:
Smashchu2 said:
jammy2211 said:
Bahahaha, the way you made it sound so routine and simple was funny.

But yeah, the one big huge flaw with your argument for me, is that you think the RPG genre is still anywhere near as relevent as it used to be, or that Japanese developers still focus mainly on the Japanese market. At the moment it still makes more sense for most RPG's to be on the DS or PSP, as they are now where the Japanese market holds its strength.

Japan's developers will obviously be putting more resources into the Wii but the way you made it sound... no chance, especially with the way nearly every third party game has sold on the console thus far in Japan minus a few established franchises.

I think the real trend in Japan is how they're now focusing more and more on the Western markets - the first and best signs were Capcom producing software like Dead Rising, Lost Planet, Dark Void, Bionic Commando. Konami and SEGA are both heading more into a western lead developement, even Square Enix are trying as they realise that's where the biggest market is going to be.

Dq10 really doesn't change anything. Publishers will support Wii cause they can make money on it, they'll support PS360 cause they can make money on them.


I'd say a much more reasonable argument is RPG's which are tailered to just the Japan market should head to Wii, but for a company like Square Enix who want to get a big piece of the American / European market, they need to keep supporting the PS360 and build on the inevitable success of FFXIII.

It's not a matter of my argument is flawed, but the fact you misjudge how everything works.

You say RPG aren't as importaint, I say you are dead wrong. What do you think the DS has been for? What do you think the PS2 was for. RPGs are a driving franchise in the business becuase they do well across boarders. FPSs are not becuase they sell in the western countries and can not break into the Japanese market. FF and DFQ were always good games to have as they are killer apps.

The problem with YOUR arguement is you eat up the Industry wisdon (an oxymoron at best). Take a look at the italics. It's obvious you didn't comprehend anything I wrote. Why else did I write "snowball". Why do you think I made mention of the movement to the Wii? Why? Becuase DQ will make Japanese developers more to the Wii DURR. You did not focus on the fact that I already mentioned what you said I was wrong about, a flaw in your argument.

Now look at the bold. It's obviouse you don't understand the business or business in general. It's not about making monye. It's about making more money. Even if developers can make money on the 360/PS3, it is more viable to make a Wii game. It's cheaper to developer for and has a larger install base. It's the obvious choice. "Oh, but 3rd parties don't sell on the Wii." Yeah, becuase no one is putting their resources into them. The 3rd parties want Sony and Microsoft to win, not Nintend. Sadly, they can't control it. Like many have said, the treand is already starting. They can not help the HD Bros. They will support the Wii or be left in the dust. This is why many development studios have been failing.

 

 RPG's arn't as relevent as they once were, all of Square-Enix's major franchise are selling less in Japan and Western markets (Except Dragon Quest sells more on Japan, although we've not really got solid figures for those before VIII). RPG's are not a 'driving franchise' anymore, shooters and western type games see far more sales now, I seriously don't see how you think RPG's are more relevent then FPS's. Just look at the sales of any RPG game other then FF and Dragon Quest... (especially outside of Japan).

DQ will make more RPG's on Wii and whatnot, but I was more just laughing at this idea that the west would follow. That aside, I still don't think the Wii is going to be the RPG behemoth of the past as I don't think sales will be those that the PS2 made. DS and PSP, the handheld market in Japan, is where the whole of the Japan market seems to have headed. Wii is racking up high sales but the software that's sold on it thus far isn't really RPG's. It really makes more sense for the RPG's to keep heading to DS and PSP, surely?

 The question is how do publishers make the most money, and is the only supporting the Wii in the dramatic way you try to make out honestly going to result in the best returns. The western developers certainly wouldn't benefit from abandoning the PS360 as they all have alot of high selling franchises, whereas the Japanese developers seem more and more focused on getting a piece of the western market for themselves.

 Every publisher and studio is in a different position and whether supporting the HD consoles, Wii, handhelds or a multiplatform statregy depends on their situation. Not all studios will benefit from developing just for the Wii, not all publishers will benefit from abandoning the PS360, you're simplifying things too much.

 And I think the reason most PS360 people didn't care about the DQX announcement, is because both consoles have pretty much given up on the JApanese market anyway, and most don't care, because it's no longer the important and relevent hub of video games it was a decade ago.

I see the Pokemon D/P sales and Pokemon in the west has sold more than any FPS in any console(not PC).

 

And Pokemon D/P is typical of JRPG game sales in the West?  How many third-parties do you really think will be making JRPG games for the Wii expecting Pokemon D/P like sales in the West?

 



Legend11 said:
MANUELF said:
jammy2211 said:
Smashchu2 said:
jammy2211 said:
Bahahaha, the way you made it sound so routine and simple was funny.

But yeah, the one big huge flaw with your argument for me, is that you think the RPG genre is still anywhere near as relevent as it used to be, or that Japanese developers still focus mainly on the Japanese market. At the moment it still makes more sense for most RPG's to be on the DS or PSP, as they are now where the Japanese market holds its strength.

Japan's developers will obviously be putting more resources into the Wii but the way you made it sound... no chance, especially with the way nearly every third party game has sold on the console thus far in Japan minus a few established franchises.

I think the real trend in Japan is how they're now focusing more and more on the Western markets - the first and best signs were Capcom producing software like Dead Rising, Lost Planet, Dark Void, Bionic Commando. Konami and SEGA are both heading more into a western lead developement, even Square Enix are trying as they realise that's where the biggest market is going to be.

Dq10 really doesn't change anything. Publishers will support Wii cause they can make money on it, they'll support PS360 cause they can make money on them.


I'd say a much more reasonable argument is RPG's which are tailered to just the Japan market should head to Wii, but for a company like Square Enix who want to get a big piece of the American / European market, they need to keep supporting the PS360 and build on the inevitable success of FFXIII.

It's not a matter of my argument is flawed, but the fact you misjudge how everything works.

You say RPG aren't as importaint, I say you are dead wrong. What do you think the DS has been for? What do you think the PS2 was for. RPGs are a driving franchise in the business becuase they do well across boarders. FPSs are not becuase they sell in the western countries and can not break into the Japanese market. FF and DFQ were always good games to have as they are killer apps.

The problem with YOUR arguement is you eat up the Industry wisdon (an oxymoron at best). Take a look at the italics. It's obvious you didn't comprehend anything I wrote. Why else did I write "snowball". Why do you think I made mention of the movement to the Wii? Why? Becuase DQ will make Japanese developers more to the Wii DURR. You did not focus on the fact that I already mentioned what you said I was wrong about, a flaw in your argument.

Now look at the bold. It's obviouse you don't understand the business or business in general. It's not about making monye. It's about making more money. Even if developers can make money on the 360/PS3, it is more viable to make a Wii game. It's cheaper to developer for and has a larger install base. It's the obvious choice. "Oh, but 3rd parties don't sell on the Wii." Yeah, becuase no one is putting their resources into them. The 3rd parties want Sony and Microsoft to win, not Nintend. Sadly, they can't control it. Like many have said, the treand is already starting. They can not help the HD Bros. They will support the Wii or be left in the dust. This is why many development studios have been failing.

 

 RPG's arn't as relevent as they once were, all of Square-Enix's major franchise are selling less in Japan and Western markets (Except Dragon Quest sells more on Japan, although we've not really got solid figures for those before VIII). RPG's are not a 'driving franchise' anymore, shooters and western type games see far more sales now, I seriously don't see how you think RPG's are more relevent then FPS's. Just look at the sales of any RPG game other then FF and Dragon Quest... (especially outside of Japan).

DQ will make more RPG's on Wii and whatnot, but I was more just laughing at this idea that the west would follow. That aside, I still don't think the Wii is going to be the RPG behemoth of the past as I don't think sales will be those that the PS2 made. DS and PSP, the handheld market in Japan, is where the whole of the Japan market seems to have headed. Wii is racking up high sales but the software that's sold on it thus far isn't really RPG's. It really makes more sense for the RPG's to keep heading to DS and PSP, surely?

 The question is how do publishers make the most money, and is the only supporting the Wii in the dramatic way you try to make out honestly going to result in the best returns. The western developers certainly wouldn't benefit from abandoning the PS360 as they all have alot of high selling franchises, whereas the Japanese developers seem more and more focused on getting a piece of the western market for themselves.

 Every publisher and studio is in a different position and whether supporting the HD consoles, Wii, handhelds or a multiplatform statregy depends on their situation. Not all studios will benefit from developing just for the Wii, not all publishers will benefit from abandoning the PS360, you're simplifying things too much.

 And I think the reason most PS360 people didn't care about the DQX announcement, is because both consoles have pretty much given up on the JApanese market anyway, and most don't care, because it's no longer the important and relevent hub of video games it was a decade ago.

I see the Pokemon D/P sales and Pokemon in the west has sold more than any FPS in any console(not PC).

 

And Pokemon D/P is typical of JRPG game sales in the West?  How many third-parties do you really think will be making JRPG games for the Wii expecting Pokemon D/P like sales in the West?

 

No one, but he was asking about a RPG series that sell better than a FPS in the west.

 



Around the Network
bigjon said:
Words Of Wisdom said:
I think most of us realize that DQ10 isn't a real "killer app."

This is just another "The Wii will get serious 3rd party support when XYZ comes/happens" thread.

 I am sure you would be hail it as PS3 savior no. 67 if it were coming out on the PS3.

The West Still follows the east, especially the core gaming community.

HD fanboys down playing this are just in denial.

The only thing that could save the PS3 at this point is a time machine. 

The only "killer app" I see in this generation is Wii Sports (well, maybe Nintendogs too).

And I'm not an "HD fanboy" either.



LordTheNightKnight said:
bigjon said:
Words Of Wisdom said:
I think most of us realize that DQ10 isn't a real "killer app."

This is just another "The Wii will get serious 3rd party support when XYZ comes/happens" thread.

 

 I am sure you would be hail it as PS3 savior no. 67 if it were coming out on the PS3.

The West Still follows the east, especially the core gaming community.

HD fanboys down playing this are just in denial.

 

And they said the same thing about DQIX on the DS. It was going to have no effect.

I just don't expect as big an effect on the Wii, but to have no effect? Please.

 

 

I think almost everyone realizes it will have an effect of course it will.  The thing is most people are responding to the OP who said HD console owners should be scared and the DQ will kill HD.  If that is not a rediculous statement i don't know what is



In the end, its about the muscle behind the game. The DQ series was never about high end graphics engine or extreme polygon count models. Don't get me wrong, DQ10 will be a higher texture, double the polygons of DQ8. But those who played DQ8 knows that is not saying much.

Final Fantasy on the other hand, every since the FF6, has been their (Square) graphical impress the hell out everyone game. So that game was gong to be on a HD console game no matter what happened. Why, because they love to push the boundaries on consoles to present the most intense graphical seen game in the series.

Bottomline, you will always have two camps, those who are looking to blow people away with visuals and sounds and others who are trying to bring entertainment to the masses without having a high polygon count.

The real question is, which camp is a Kingdom Hearts game in? Does it want to push the boundries of graphics or does it want to be a lovable game that all can play and not worry about mind blowing graphics?



I'm just saying...

You do realize that dragon quest X will come out in 2010 or maybe 2011, there will only be 2 years left in the gen considering that even if those games go into development that year they wont make it out befor 2012 or more likely 2013, so i disagree with you there, but i already think the japanese market is going to be based around handhelds wii wont even make it to ps2 sales in japan, no chance of ds sales, also some of the major japanese franchises have moved to the wii like monster hunter, tales, and dragon quest



Squilliam said:

There are ~30+ Individual million seller franchises on the Xbox 360 that are third party. To make a sequel to one of these games is probably a safer investment than the Wii at this point. Thats a significant portion of the best development talent which has already found success on the platform. Its a risk at this point to break apart the successful teams (30 developers vs 90 say HD vs Wii) especially considering in 3 years time the next generation will be upon us and they will need teams that size anyway for all consoles, even Nintendo's. Furthermore the development times and expenses are dropping rapidly, 36 months becomes 30 and 30 becomes 24 as the generation progresses.

 

Everything you say appears to be things you wish were true, but I see no evidence in the market showing so.

I am not denying that there are not good sellers on any platform, but as time goes by, the market for the Wii is growing so much larger that only a fanboy would ignore it.  Add to that the lowered development costs for the platform.

What are things we have actually seen in 2008:

 - many titles going multi-platform (shows the individual platforms aren't big enough)

 - high profile disappointments (HAZE, TOO HUMAN) that may cost companies their existance.

 - downsizing of the development studio's in many companies.  One merely can't say this is due to the recession.  It is occurring because these comapnies are going in the red.   Not all companies are downsizing right now; the wellaimed companies are doing very well.

 

Businesses can't ignore lower cost, lower risk, and larger market when planning to sell products.  You can, but you are a consumer, not a business.