Impulsivity said:
Price does not change things a huge amount unless that price is very high (IE the PS3). Look at the 360 sales, they are VIRTUALLY FLAT between Sept-Nov 07 and Sept-Nov 08. In fact the 360 sold 100k more between Sept 07 and Nov 07 then between Sept 08 and Nov 08. Dropping the price may have helped sustain the sales it had last year longer, but it by no means increased them. The PS2 and Wii did not take off only because of low price, they also were the dominant system in the public perception for their time.
That the 360 undercut the Wii by going to 199 vs 250 and barely hit last years numbers while the Wii more then doubled during the same time frame underscores that point. Remember when the gamecube went to 99 bucks to try and stay in the game and just fell further behind? Same thing here with the 360. You can't manufacture buzz with a low price alone.
As to the Wii the main limit seems to be production capacity. This is a HARD cap though. Nintendo would be stupid to make 40 million since it would only be sustainable for one year. What are they going to do, invest a bunch in new factory capacity so it can run for one year before dropping back to 20 million or so in production? The Wii may hit 80 or 90 million but it won't be until the end of 2010. You are assuming that the biggest month ever for the Wii (2 million) will be not only repeated but IMPROVED upon all next year which is just silly. Do you really think they're going to be making and selling over 3 million consoles in March 09? Alternately do you really think they're going to be selling 10 million in nov and dec 09 to make up for 1 million console march?
Even the PS2, which at this point in its life cycle was doing as well or better then the Wii, was NEVER gaining 40 million in sales a year, that is just silly. |
Two things first it doesn't have to do 40 million next year to reach 80, as it'll be around 45 million at end of this year, second you assume tha it would drop down a year later, when what we've seen is that Wii has yet to drop and any drop in demand can be solved by a drop in price, as there is such a thing as willingness to pay for any product, by lowering the price they will reach those with a lower willingness to pay, and those who are looking for greater consumer surplus from their purchase. As a result Nintendo reaching 80 million plus next year will not be as unlikely as you think
It will be obsolete long before it gets anywhere near 200 million. If it hits 100 million before the Wii HD (or whatever its called) is released I'd be very surprised.
Nintendo has no reason to release a new system in the next few years, as they are in the dominant position, and they make profit on the Wii, in fact they are more likely to let sony and MS announce one or two years before they announce the next console.
You're right kitchen sink. I forgot about those first few REALLY awkward months for the PS2 when there was no supply and they launched at a BAD time (was march or something if I remember). To make my point right I'd have to give the PS2 a mulligan on the first half year to year.
If you adjust the chart to start the PS2 off in November of its launch year it looks a lot more sensical.
Even region by region Wii is leading everywhere except Japan over the PS2, and Wii has had supply issues far longer than the PS2 had, and PS2 had price drops by this point in its lifespan. Wii's sales potential is far above what the PS2's was
