Quantcast
The Official June NPD Thread (Data comes July 23 @ ~6:30 PM EST)

Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official June NPD Thread (Data comes July 23 @ ~6:30 PM EST)

Here is my article on June NPD data and hardware.  http://www.vgchartz.com/news/news.php?id=421

I have included a bevy of other information in this post however, so if you want more data, keep reading.

My expectations for USA NPD June (a 5 week month vs. 4 week May)

DS - 520k

Wii - 425k

PSP - 240k

PS2 - 225k

X360 - 185k

PS3 - 95k

GBA - 90k

GC - 10k

Below is historical and current data...

We begin with a look back at May sales:

 May US NPDMay Can NPDMay total NPDcan/total sales
DS423,00035,900458,9007.80%
Wii338,00037,300375,3009.90%
Xbox 360155,00012,300167,3007.40%
PS2187,76518,200205,9658.80%
PSP221,12015,000236,1206.40%
PS381,0006,50087,5007.40%

Compare changes in Canadian data (note May was 4 weeks, June is 5 for both USA & Canadian data):

 May Can NPDJune Canada NPD
DS35,90045,700
Wii37,30053,000
Xbox 36012,30013,500
PS218,20021,000
PSP15,00018,500
PS36,5006,500

Using the percentages Canadian May NPD accounted for out of Canadian May NPD + American May NPD, and the rate of increase/decrease in sales for each piece of hardware in Canada from May to June on a weekly basis, I expect totals to look like this for NPD June (USA + Canada)

 June US Est.NPD Can. ActualJune Total
DS538,42245,700584,122
Wii426,96053,000479,960
Xbox 360189,35113,500202,851
PS2216,63221,000237,632
PSP272,81318,500291,313
PS381,0006,50087,500

The bolded figures are within 10% of what Vgchartz has over the same period.  Italicized figures are within 20% over the same period.  For easy comparison, below are the VGChartz totals +/- 10%

 VGC Total JuneNPD = (VGC)(.9)NPD = (VGC)(1.1)
DS503,456453,110553,802
Wii429,371386,434472,308
PSP267,567240,810294,324
PS2243,580219,222267,938
Xbox 360211,781190,603232,959
GBA94,98885,489104,487
PS395,39885,858104,938
GC13,23411,91114,557

In the United States, Pachter & The Sim Exchange expect the following ( http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=14709 ):

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pachter has made the following predictions on a publisher by publisher basis:

- Activision -- $80 million, +129% from 2006.
- Atari -- $3 million, -53% from 2006.
- Electronic Arts -- $65 million, -11% from 2006.
- Majesco -- $4 million, -37% from 2006.
- Midway -- $7 million, -15% from 2006.
- Take-Two -- $40 million, +6% from 2006.
- THQ -- $35 million, -19% from 2006.
- Ubisoft -- $24 million, -1% from 2006.

On a platform basis, Pachter offered the following predictions, including a more than 4 to 1 outpacing of the Wii compared with the PlayStation 3, despite continuing hardware shortages:

- Wii - 435,000
- PS3 - 100,000
- Xbox 360 - 200,000
- PS2 - 235,000
- PSP - 250,000
- DS - 550,000
- GBA - 90,000

Fantasy video game prediction market simExchange, which aggregates predictions from multiple users of its service, has similarly offered its hardware predictions at the following rates:

- Nintendo DS - 510,000
- Wii - 433,000
- PSP - 273,000
- Xbox 360 - 191,000
- Playstation 3 - 101,000

For the first time, simExchange is also offering a forecast of ten top selling titles for the month of June, including the following:

- Forza Motorsport 2 (Xbox 360) 192K copies
- Mario Party 8 (Wii) 329K copies
- The Darkness (PS3) 67K copies
- The Darkness (Xbox 360) 140K copies
- Pokemon Battle Revolution (Wii) 171K copies
- Big Brain Academy (Wii) 107K copies
- Transformers: The Game (PS2) 102K copies
- Transformers: The Game (Xbox 360) 90K copies
- Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (PS2) 142K copies
- Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Xbox 360) 59K copies

The games listed by simExchange were chosen specifically for forecasting by the group, and are not necessarily meant to represent the top ten sellers of the month. 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Once again, data will be available June 23 at 6:30 pm or so EST.  Feel free to guess what you think will happen...



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Around the Network

I was just wondering what the hell was happening with the NPD numbers.

Looks like the NPD numbers will be available when I wake tomorrow. Good luck, VGC!



Help! I'm stuck in a forum signature!

Hey Source, are you, myself, DonWii, and a few others getting together tonight right after the NPD announcements and going over the data in a chat, like we did last time?



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

does it have to be tonight? we'll be writing up stuff. :p



Time to get the popcorn ready...



Around the Network

I didnt even know I was in the talk...



DonWii said:
I didnt even know I was in the talk...

You better don't mess it up, you are representing all the lesser members (the non-mods) of the forum.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

The VGCharts 5 week totals changed slightly when I woke up today..but here are the updated totals over the comparable period...

DS - 518,321

Wii - 472,973

PSP - 267,567

PS2 - 243,580

Xbox 360 - 227,275

GBA - 95,398

PS3 - 88,956

GC - 13,234

The differences are minor in all cases, PSP, PS2, GC did not change.  DS, 360, and GBA saw increases in about 1-3k per week (on average), PS3 saw a decrease of 1k per week on average, and Wii saw an increase of 8k per week (likely because of stronger than expected Canadian numbers - no one expected over ~40k for Canada for Wii, Wii did 53k though).



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Here's some of our top software titles for NPD's June period, earliest weeks first:

Wii Sports (Wii): 91782 + 101605 + 92129 + 99490 + 87967 = 472973
Mario Party 8 (Wii): 143424 + 82962 + 61204 + 49320 + 30983 = 367893
Pokemon Diamond / Pearl (DS): 85232 + 78489 + 70801 + 63882 + 50818 = 349222
Forza Motorsport 2 (360): 84736 + 49734 + 36917 + 27792 + 19482 = 218661
Wii Play (Wii): 51292 + 45460 + 39802 + 41342 + 35527 = 213423

Naruto: Ultimate Ninja 2 (PS2): 0 + 71749 + 46422 + 31739 + 23619 = 173529
Resident Evil 4: Wii Edition (Wii): 0 + 0 + 86440 + 48514 + 25963 = 160917
Pokemon Battle Revolution (Wii): 0 + 0 + 0 + 135115 + 25436 = 160551
Guitar Hero II (360): 30165 + 28998 + 30990 + 31716 + 25669 = 147538
The Darkness (360): 0 + 0 + 0 + 110818 + 35568 = 146386

Tenchu Z (360): 0 + 76249 + 38201 + 19243 + 11609 = 145302
Nintendogs (DS): 26557 + 27383 + 26416 + 27242 + 29048 = 136646
Transformers the Game (PS2): 0 + 0 + 0 + 85451 + 48194 = 133645
DiRT (360): 0 + 0 + 69715 + 34563 + 20686 = 124964
Tomb Raider Anniversary (PS2): 48748* + 28859 + 18874 + 14958 + 12118 = 123557

Overlord (360): 0 + 0 + 0 + 79014 + 30461 = 109475
Shadowrun (360): 42230 + 24530 + 15891 + 10536 + 7721 = 100908
Super Paper Mario (Wii): 24556 + 21297 + 17850 + 19701 + 11056 = 94460
Big Brain Academy: Wii Degree (Wii): 0 + 34754 + 25301 + 15614 + 10872 = 86541
Call of Juarez (360): 45241* + 18639 + 10768 + 6547 + 4084 = 85279

The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (Wii): 21240 + 18334 + 15330 + 16664 + 11953 = 83521
Spiderman: The Movie 3 (PS2): 27897 + 20219 + 12910 + 10110 + 8141 = 79277
Transformers the Game (360): 0 + 0 + 0 + 51345 + 27158 = 78503
The Darkness (PS3): 0 + 0 + 0 + 52632 + 17939 = 70571
Ninja Gaiden Sigma (PS3): 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 37860 = 37860

 

NPD Canada's top 10, which is more heavily Wii-slanted, has no actual numbers, has no Wii Sports, separates the Pokemon games, and has some kind of old Xbox value pack thing in there which I'm guessing was Canada-only:

Mario Party 8 (Wii)
Wii Play (Wii)
Pokemon Diamond (DS)
"Value Pack" (Xbox)
Forza Motorsport 2 (360)
Pokemon Pearl (DS)
Guitar Hero II (360)
Resident Evil 4: Wii Edition (Wii)
The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (Wii)
Super Paper Mario (Wii)



Oh Bunkum ... where for art thou?