The Official June NPD Thread (Data comes July 23 @ ~6:30 PM EST)

[TheSource]

Here is my article on June NPD data and hardware.  http://www.vgchartz.com/news/news.php?id=421

I have included a bevy of other information in this post however, so if you want more data, keep reading.

My expectations for USA NPD June (a 5 week month vs. 4 week May)

DS - 520k

Wii - 425k

PSP - 240k

PS2 - 225k

X360 - 185k

PS3 - 95k

GBA - 90k

GC - 10k

Below is historical and current data...

We begin with a look back at May sales:

	May US NPD	May Can NPD	May total NPD	can/total sales
DS	423,000	35,900	458,900	7.80%
Wii	338,000	37,300	375,300	9.90%
Xbox 360	155,000	12,300	167,300	7.40%
PS2	187,765	18,200	205,965	8.80%
PSP	221,120	15,000	236,120	6.40%
PS3	81,000	6,500	87,500	7.40%

Compare changes in Canadian data (note May was 4 weeks, June is 5 for both USA & Canadian data):

	May Can NPD	June Canada NPD
DS	35,900	45,700
Wii	37,300	53,000
Xbox 360	12,300	13,500
PS2	18,200	21,000
PSP	15,000	18,500
PS3	6,500	6,500

Using the percentages Canadian May NPD accounted for out of Canadian May NPD + American May NPD, and the rate of increase/decrease in sales for each piece of hardware in Canada from May to June on a weekly basis, I expect totals to look like this for NPD June (USA + Canada)

	June US Est.	NPD Can. Actual	June Total
DS	538,422	45,700	584,122
Wii	426,960	53,000	479,960
Xbox 360	189,351	13,500	202,851
PS2	216,632	21,000	237,632
PSP	272,813	18,500	291,313
PS3	81,000	6,500	87,500

The bolded figures are within 10% of what Vgchartz has over the same period.  Italicized figures are within 20% over the same period.  For easy comparison, below are the VGChartz totals +/- 10%

	VGC Total June	NPD = (VGC)(.9)	NPD = (VGC)(1.1)
DS	503,456	453,110	553,802
Wii	429,371	386,434	472,308
PSP	267,567	240,810	294,324
PS2	243,580	219,222	267,938
Xbox 360	211,781	190,603	232,959
GBA	94,988	85,489	104,487
PS3	95,398	85,858	104,938
GC	13,234	11,911	14,557

In the United States, Pachter & The Sim Exchange expect the following ( http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=14709 ):

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Pachter has made the following predictions on a publisher by publisher basis:

- Activision -- $80 million, +129% from 2006.
- Atari -- $3 million, -53% from 2006.
- Electronic Arts -- $65 million, -11% from 2006.
- Majesco -- $4 million, -37% from 2006.
- Midway -- $7 million, -15% from 2006.
- Take-Two -- $40 million, +6% from 2006.
- THQ -- $35 million, -19% from 2006.
- Ubisoft -- $24 million, -1% from 2006.

On a platform basis, Pachter offered the following predictions, including a more than 4 to 1 outpacing of the Wii compared with the PlayStation 3, despite continuing hardware shortages:

- Wii - 435,000
- PS3 - 100,000
- Xbox 360 - 200,000
- PS2 - 235,000
- PSP - 250,000
- DS - 550,000
- GBA - 90,000

Fantasy video game prediction market simExchange, which aggregates predictions from multiple users of its service, has similarly offered its hardware predictions at the following rates:

- Nintendo DS - 510,000
- Wii - 433,000
- PSP - 273,000
- Xbox 360 - 191,000
- Playstation 3 - 101,000

For the first time, simExchange is also offering a forecast of ten top selling titles for the month of June, including the following:

- Forza Motorsport 2 (Xbox 360) 192K copies
- Mario Party 8 (Wii) 329K copies
- The Darkness (PS3) 67K copies
- The Darkness (Xbox 360) 140K copies
- Pokemon Battle Revolution (Wii) 171K copies
- Big Brain Academy (Wii) 107K copies
- Transformers: The Game (PS2) 102K copies
- Transformers: The Game (Xbox 360) 90K copies
- Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (PS2) 142K copies
- Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Xbox 360) 59K copies

The games listed by simExchange were chosen specifically for forecasting by the group, and are not necessarily meant to represent the top ten sellers of the month. 

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Once again, data will be available June 23 at 6:30 pm or so EST.  Feel free to guess what you think will happen...