Quantcast
When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the switch outsell the ps4?

When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 6 4.48%
 
First half of 2023 3 2.24%
 
Second half of 2023 9 6.72%
 
First half of 2024 7 5.22%
 
Second half of 2024 11 8.21%
 
First half of 2025 5 3.73%
 
Second half of 2025 3 2.24%
 
Later than above 1 0.75%
 
Never 89 66.42%
 
Total:134

It depend on how long Nintendo will support Switch, price reduction, 3rd party support, will there be new product on the line that replace Switch ?

Remember there will always be what we called product age on the market. Nintendo are great with their first party IP, but they also need to sustain more because Switch are lacking with 3rd party ip or multi platform games. I know Switch has more 3rd party games more than Wii U did , but it's still lacking compared to Wii or even gamecube era. having Indies is not enough.



Around the Network
yo33331 said:

PS4 is doing 140M lifetime like it or not. And Switch will have very very difficult time reaching it. It will probably do another 20M this year and the next at best. After this, decline, and it will maybe finish at 110-120M at best. And yes, the buyers who would buy switch for 199$ are buying it now. So no price cut to 199$ on the normal switch won't push the sales any further. The lite at 149$ after year or two can, but I already put it in the accounting with the numbers that I wrote.

Me personally I think PS5 and XB1 will affect switch sales little or more. Switch is console with PS3/360 power, and with PS5 it will be 2 generations behind. Pretty much everyone different from casual gamer would think twice about getting console with hardware that was high end in 2005.. This also means that 3rd party support may be smaller compare to now. Because one thing is PS4 port to PS3 hardware, and way other thing is PS5 game to PS3 hardware. There will be 3rd party games just like not that much as they were until now.

Please list how much you think the ps4 will sell in 2020, 2021, 2022... to reach that 140m. The buyers who want a $199 switch have to watch it still be $299 and the lite's sales prove it. I won't even begin to talk about how ridiculous it is to say switch has ps360 power.



S.Peelman said:
Ljink96 said:

Well, sure. However, in this case because of my thoughts and the results of the poll I believe the users who responded made the right decision. 

Everybody just guesses something. That more people guess the same thing doesn't mean that that particular thing is actually going to happen. This far in advance both outcomes have as much of a chance of happening. If you or anyone end up right with their answer, they were just lucky.

Isn't that the whole point of this thread though? We're making predictions... Obviously nothing is factual at this time, which is why I use words like "thoughts" and "believe". C'mon now. 

Last edited by Ljink96 - on 12 January 2020

S.Peelman said:
Ljink96 said:

Well, sure. However, in this case because of my thoughts and the results of the poll I believe the users who responded made the right decision. 

Everybody just guesses something. That more people guess the same thing doesn't mean that that particular thing is actually going to happen. This far in advance both outcomes have as much of a chance of happening. If you or anyone end up right with their answer, they were just lucky.

Luck is reserved for those who don't have any reasoning for their choice to post.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Nu-13 said:
yo33331 said:

PS4 is doing 140M lifetime like it or not. And Switch will have very very difficult time reaching it. It will probably do another 20M this year and the next at best. After this, decline, and it will maybe finish at 110-120M at best. And yes, the buyers who would buy switch for 199$ are buying it now. So no price cut to 199$ on the normal switch won't push the sales any further. The lite at 149$ after year or two can, but I already put it in the accounting with the numbers that I wrote.

Me personally I think PS5 and XB1 will affect switch sales little or more. Switch is console with PS3/360 power, and with PS5 it will be 2 generations behind. Pretty much everyone different from casual gamer would think twice about getting console with hardware that was high end in 2005.. This also means that 3rd party support may be smaller compare to now. Because one thing is PS4 port to PS3 hardware, and way other thing is PS5 game to PS3 hardware. There will be 3rd party games just like not that much as they were until now.

Please list how much you think the ps4 will sell in 2020, 2021, 2022... to reach that 140m. The buyers who want a $199 switch have to watch it still be $299 and the lite's sales prove it. I won't even begin to talk about how ridiculous it is to say switch has ps360 power.

I think Sony will do 2 major price cuts on it until the end of it's life. That's why I bet on at least 140M. First to 199$ possibly this year and then to 99$ in 2022 or 2023. 12-14M this year with the price cut, 2021 - 10M, 2022 - 6 to 8M (depends if this is the 99$ cut year) and 2023 and 2024 some 4-5M combined



Around the Network
yo33331 said:
Nu-13 said:

Please list how much you think the ps4 will sell in 2020, 2021, 2022... to reach that 140m. The buyers who want a $199 switch have to watch it still be $299 and the lite's sales prove it. I won't even begin to talk about how ridiculous it is to say switch has ps360 power.

I think Sony will do 2 major price cuts on it until the end of it's life. That's why I bet on at least 140M. First to 199$ possibly this year and then to 99$ in 2022 or 2023. 12-14M this year with the price cut, 2021 - 10M, 2022 - 6 to 8M (depends if this is the 99$ cut year) and 2023 and 2024 some 4-5M combined

A $99 PS4 sounds very profitable for Sony.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

yo33331 said:
Nu-13 said:

Please list how much you think the ps4 will sell in 2020, 2021, 2022... to reach that 140m. The buyers who want a $199 switch have to watch it still be $299 and the lite's sales prove it. I won't even begin to talk about how ridiculous it is to say switch has ps360 power.

I think Sony will do 2 major price cuts on it until the end of it's life. That's why I bet on at least 140M. First to 199$ possibly this year and then to 99$ in 2022 or 2023. 12-14M this year with the price cut, 2021 - 10M, 2022 - 6 to 8M (depends if this is the 99$ cut year) and 2023 and 2024 some 4-5M combined

I won't go too deep on this. I'll just say that a $99 ps4 ain't happening and even if it gets a price cut soon, it won't sell those numbers you predict.



We will see in the end. No one would think that 99$ PS2 would be profitable for sony too. But they did it. If it happened one time, why not second time ? (even PS1 was dropped to 49$ in the end). PS3 didn't stand a chance for this cuz it had blu rey (which was expensier at the time than now and had expensive cell processor too). In 2023 99$ PS4 ( 10 year hardware by then ) would be profitable or at least not loosing money on it. But because of this more games will be bought and sony knows this, and they are making most of the profits by selling more games for the console, not so much by the hardware itself.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 12 January 2020

yo33331 said:
Nu-13 said:

Please list how much you think the ps4 will sell in 2020, 2021, 2022... to reach that 140m. The buyers who want a $199 switch have to watch it still be $299 and the lite's sales prove it. I won't even begin to talk about how ridiculous it is to say switch has ps360 power.

I think Sony will do 2 major price cuts on it until the end of it's life. That's why I bet on at least 140M. First to 199$ possibly this year and then to 99$ in 2022 or 2023. 12-14M this year with the price cut, 2021 - 10M, 2022 - 6 to 8M (depends if this is the 99$ cut year) and 2023 and 2024 some 4-5M combined

Wait, you think a price cut won't push Switch but a price cut will push PS4? 



Dulfite said:
yo33331 said:

I think Sony will do 2 major price cuts on it until the end of it's life. That's why I bet on at least 140M. First to 199$ possibly this year and then to 99$ in 2022 or 2023. 12-14M this year with the price cut, 2021 - 10M, 2022 - 6 to 8M (depends if this is the 99$ cut year) and 2023 and 2024 some 4-5M combined

Wait, you think a price cut won't push Switch but a price cut will push PS4? 

It will, however the push of 199$ has already been done with the lite. It can do a push with 99$. And even then I've already put it in the numbers I gave.