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curl-6 on 07 November 2019

The Switch-Xbone gap is down to 2.6 million. Not long now.

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Amnesia on 07 November 2019

trunkswd said:

mZuzek said:
It's still a bit surreal to me that the Switch will outsell the Xbox One this year. Didn't think it'd happen so fast.

Agreesd. I was expecting the Switch to surpass the Xbox One in 2020. Then Nintendo announced the Switch Lite. Switch can even surpass the SNES this year.

There are still some who doubt about this ? It is a 100% given unless the 3rd world war starts during Q3...There was only 8 millions to catch up, for your info, Q3 makes the Switch up by 64% from last year. Should be less at the end...But still huge.

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PAOerfulone on 07 November 2019

Exactly. I'm not entirely sure about worldwide, but 2020 should be the Switch's peak year in Japan due to Pokemon+Switch Lite momentum going strong into the year and Animal Crossing New Horizons not long afterwards + most 3rd party Japanese developers should start really showing their support for the system.

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PAOerfulone on 07 November 2019

trunkswd said:

Saying Switch is dominating Japan is an understatement. The Switch has a good chance of selling as well, if not better than the 3DS did lifetime. The 3DS has sold 24.5 million units in Japan. The Switch just crossed 10 million sold in Japan.

Granted, the 3DS was well passed the 10 million mark at this point in its life cycle. By November 2, 2013, the 3DS as closing in on 14 million.
But the 3DS also peaked very early in its life cycle. It already got a price cut and a hardware revision within a year and half of its release. Starting next year, we're going to start seeing the Switch close the gap between it and the 3DS, considerably.

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zorg1000 on 07 November 2019

trunkswd said:

zorg1000 said:

With both NSMB Deluxe & Mario Maker 2 both releasing this year, I have a hard time seeing a new 2D Mario releasing next year.

Odyssey 2 would be great but it has the same issue as BotW2 or Pokemon in that they will sell a ton of software and will move a good amount of hardware but their strength will be dimished by the fact that they all already have installments on Switch.

And I agree that we probably wont see a flat out price cut next year, added value bundles are more likely.

Overall I expect sales to slow down next year, not a huge decline though, maybe something like down 10-15% YoY so still very high sales.

I forgot about NSMB Deluxe coming out earlier this year. The thing is The Switch Lite will be available for all of 2020, while in 2019 it is only available for 3.5 months. Sales should be up year-on-year through summer 2020. Animal Crossing is bigger than any release in 2019, other than Pokemon Sword / Shield. I expect a lot more Japanese games coming to the Switch as it is the only platform that is still selling well there.

I dont really see Japanese support changing in any major way. Up to this point it has mostly been smaller niche titles, late ports, remasters and the occasional medium sized exclusive.

The next mainline titles in the big franchises like Monster Hunter, Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Resident Evil, Kingdom Hearts, etc are years away from releasing so that's not really a factor for Switch next year.

In terms of system selling 3rd party titles, it would either be some surprise hit new IP or a collaboration on a Nintendo IP.

And I agree that Lite+Animal Crossing will keep it up YoY in Q1 & Q2 but depending on what releases in Q3 I could see it being down (still up YTD though). Mario Maker, Fire Emblem, 2D Zelda, improved model & Lite model is tough to compete with. Then Q4 I expect to be down unless they have some really aggressive holiday deals.

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curl-6 on 07 November 2019

Also I just noticed: Switch > PS4 + Xbone combined in North America.

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Skeeuk on 08 November 2019

switch is doing well because of the 3ds to switch upgraders its more of a handheld

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Agente42 on 08 November 2019

zorg1000 said:

trunkswd said:

I forgot about NSMB Deluxe coming out earlier this year. The thing is The Switch Lite will be available for all of 2020, while in 2019 it is only available for 3.5 months. Sales should be up year-on-year through summer 2020. Animal Crossing is bigger than any release in 2019, other than Pokemon Sword / Shield. I expect a lot more Japanese games coming to the Switch as it is the only platform that is still selling well there.

I dont really see Japanese support changing in any major way. Up to this point it has mostly been smaller niche titles, late ports, remasters and the occasional medium sized exclusive.

The next mainline titles in the big franchises like Monster Hunter, Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Resident Evil, Kingdom Hearts, etc are years away from releasing so that's not really a factor for Switch next year.

In terms of system selling 3rd party titles, it would either be some surprise hit new IP or a collaboration on a Nintendo IP.

And I agree that Lite+Animal Crossing will keep it up YoY in Q1 & Q2 but depending on what releases in Q3 I could see it being down (still up YTD though). Mario Maker, Fire Emblem, 2D Zelda, improved model & Lite model is tough to compete with. Then Q4 I expect to be down unless they have some really aggressive holiday deals.

Dragon quest , I believe will lauch Switch/Ps4/PC. Square Enix no more obey Horii will. Maybe a Monster and remake Dragon Quest IX.

Monster Hunter, Capcom need to launch something. The investor asks Capcom every time about it. The better world is Monster Hunter World Portable Version. lazy like Capcom.