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May NPD 2019

Forums - Sales Discussion - May NPD 2019

Shadow1980 said:

Chart time!

More graphs in this cut quote than I would like, but it's a single image, so it will have to show more than just Switch.

Anyway, healthy year over year growth for Switch in all months so far, although April and May were freebies considering how bad they were last year. June and July pose an actual challenge, so single-digit percentage growth in these two months would be fine already. August, September and October all make for easier comparisons again.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

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The best-selling games of May 2019 in the U.S.

Mortal Kombat 11
Days Gone
Total War: Three Kingdoms
Rage 2*
Grand Theft Auto V
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate*
Red Dead Redemption II
MLB 19: The Show
Minecraft#
NBA 2K19
Mario Kart 8*
Tom Clancy’s The Division 2^
Call of Duty: Black Ops IIII^
New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe*
Marvel’s Spider-Man
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild*
Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six: Siege
Assassin’s Creed: Odyssey
Team Sonic Racing
Yoshi’s Crafted World*
* Digital sales not included
^ PC digital sales not included
# Minecraft digital sales on PlayStation 4 and Xbox One included

The best-selling games of 2019 so far

Mortal Kombat 11
Kingdom Hearts III
Tom Clancy’s The Division 2^
Anthem^
Resident Evil 2 2019
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate*
Red Dead Redemption II
Days Gone
MLB 19: The Show
Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice

The best-selling games of the last 12 months

Red Dead Redemption II
Call of Duty: Black Ops IIII^
NBA 2K19
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate*
Madden NFL 19^
Marvel’s Spider-Man
Assassin’s Creed: Odyssey
Mortal Kombat 11
FIFA 19^
Kingdom Hearts III
https://venturebeat.com/2019/06/18/may-2019-npd-the-end-of-a-generation/



This month might be the first week that the Switch is down. Although, I think this is a five week month, so probably not.



jason1637 said:

The best-selling games of 2019 so far

Mortal Kombat 11
Kingdom Hearts III
Tom Clancy’s The Division 2^
Anthem^
Resident Evil 2 2019
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate*
Red Dead Redemption II
Days Gone
MLB 19: The Show
Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice

The best-selling games of the last 12 months

Red Dead Redemption II
Call of Duty: Black Ops IIII^
NBA 2K19
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate*
Madden NFL 19^
Marvel’s Spider-Man
Assassin’s Creed: Odyssey
Mortal Kombat 11
FIFA 19^
Kingdom Hearts III
https://venturebeat.com/2019/06/18/may-2019-npd-the-end-of-a-generation/

I am truly amazed at how well MK11 has performed.



chakkra said:
jason1637 said:

The best-selling games of 2019 so far

Mortal Kombat 11
Kingdom Hearts III
Tom Clancy’s The Division 2^
Anthem^
Resident Evil 2 2019
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate*
Red Dead Redemption II
Days Gone
MLB 19: The Show
Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice

The best-selling games of the last 12 months

Red Dead Redemption II
Call of Duty: Black Ops IIII^
NBA 2K19
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate*
Madden NFL 19^
Marvel’s Spider-Man
Assassin’s Creed: Odyssey
Mortal Kombat 11
FIFA 19^
Kingdom Hearts III
https://venturebeat.com/2019/06/18/may-2019-npd-the-end-of-a-generation/

I am truly amazed at how well MK11 has performed.

MK10 was big so MK11 doing big numbers doesn't. really surprise me.



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More charts!


The PS4 continues to enjoy a LTD surplus of over 8M units compared to the PS3. While the PS4 has had a much larger YoY decline in year-to-date sales compared to what the PS3 did in 2012 (-32.9% vs. -16%) and the PS4 has overall sold less so far this year than the PS3 did in the Jan.-May period of 2012 (1189k vs. 1019k), the total numerical difference is not massive, and was mostly due to February and March. The PS4 actually had a slight edge for May. Unless sales this holiday experience a catastrophic drop-off larger than the declines seen so far (-24% for Q1; the declines were much larger for April & May because of God of War's effect on sales last year), the PS3 should have a better 2019 than the PS3's 2012. If it can maintain a surplus of at least 8M for the remainder of its life, the PS4 should end with a lifetime tally of at least 35M (it should reach 30M by October).

Meanwhile, the XBO's deficit against the 360 continues to grow. The 360 was still doing well in 2011 (its fifth year), and would not start to decline until 2012, so the XBO is at an additional disadvantage due to a shorter overall primary lifespan. Because of the XBO's ever-growing deficit against the 360, the combined net surplus the PS4 & XBO have against the PS3 & 360 continues to decline, and has now dipped below 6 million units, it will likely dip below 4 million by year's end. It will almost certainly evaporate entirely, and I currently project that combined PS4 + XBO sales will end at around 67-68M, short of the combined 70M the PS3 & 360 sold. This does not necessarily mean the market for conventional consoles has shrunk, and we have to keep in mind that the 360 was the longest-lived console in terms of gap between its launch and the launch of its replacement (8 years, vs. 7 years for the PS4, XBO, and PS3). The PS4 & XBO's combined annual sales were over 9M units every year from 2014 to 2018, a streak that PS & Xbox weren't able to accomplish in prior generations, and it was a very strong 5-year period in general, about identical to the 2007-2012 period for PS3+360 sales and well ahead of the 2001-2005 period for PS2+OXbox sales.



Shadow1980 said:

Chart time!

More charts to come later.

The PS4 had its worst month yet, and the XBO had its second-worst month (though its worst month, May 2014, was when they announced a Kinect-less SKU for release in June, resulting in a much larger April-to-May drop that year). For YTD sales, the PS4 is down 32.9% YoY while the XBO is down 34.1%. While the Switch's sales have grown by a healthy 23.3% for the year so far, it wasn't enough to offset the losses from the PS4 & XBO, and so far console sales are down 15.7% from the Jan.-May period of last year.

Thanks for the insights. 

PS4/Xbone are really starting to show their age.

Still amazes me that Switch has done so well this year so far despite the mediocre lineup, though I suppose a lot of that likely has to do with Smash's long term momentum carrying over from last December. Can't wait to see how it does from the end of this month onwards once the onslaught of new games kicks in.

EDIT: I'm really surprised how well MK11 is doing on Switch; it's not the kind of game I'd expect to really resonate with a Nintendo audience, especially considering the "only a third of the game is on the card, download the rest" shenanigans it pulled.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 22 June 2019

Shadow1980 said:

More charts!