Quantcast
April NPD 2019 thread

Forums - Sales Discussion - April NPD 2019 thread

That's probably a steeper drop for PS4 than most expected, hard to keep up with GoW month understandably and the Xbox.. :S

Switch has pretty much been going in the same tempo through out the year - bodes well for once H2 kicks in and the software releasing in a much higher tempo.



Around the Network

Switch numbers are okay. Neither the comparison to Switch's last April nor the direct comparison to the PS4 and XB1 this April should be used to declare the numbers great, because the bar is low in either case.

A bit perplexing that seemingly both Sony and Microsoft are targeting a late 2020 launch for their next consoles. Software releases in 2019 have hardly moved the needle on hardware sales anymore and a variety of promotions in the past will lessen the impact of an official price drop in the future. 2020 won't be looking good for them when 2019 already turns into a crawl.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

RolStoppable said:
Switch numbers are okay. Neither the comparison to Switch's last April nor the direct comparison to the PS4 and XB1 this April should be used to declare the numbers great, because the bar is low in either case.

A bit perplexing that seemingly both Sony and Microsoft are targeting a late 2020 launch for their next consoles. Software releases in 2019 have hardly moved the needle on hardware sales anymore and a variety of promotions in the past will lessen the impact of an official price drop in the future. 2020 won't be looking good for them when 2019 already turns into a crawl.

Numbers are always low during this period, However I believe the Switch this month is the second highest April this gen only bested by PS4 2018. So while the numbers are low in a vacuum, number is high for April. So definately more than ok.

But yes I do agree with the rest of your post, if PS5/Nextbox really is releasing holiday 2020.. next year is going to look grim in terms of sales.



RolStoppable said:

A bit perplexing that seemingly both Sony and Microsoft are targeting a late 2020 launch for their next consoles. Software releases in 2019 have hardly moved the needle on hardware sales anymore and a variety of promotions in the past will lessen the impact of an official price drop in the future. 2020 won't be looking good for them when 2019 already turns into a crawl.

Don't know about Xbox, but the higher your install base, the less important harware sales become compared to software sales, where the vast majority of your profits come from.
Why wouldn't they want to ride out the software sales a ~100m install base generates? Vs resetting the next generation race where they could potentially screw up big time, and end up with ~15m lifetime sales?

Sony are expecting 16m this fiscal year I believe?
16m to a 100m+ install base is still going to be a lot better than say 22m to a 30m install base.

The 6m extra units in growth doesn't offset the 70m difference in install base, which should translate to a lot more software sales.
So during these periods of a consoles life, I think what makes the console manufacturers more happy is if good games come out that generate a lot of software sales.

At some point they'll have to, in order to catch up with technology and the demands and expectations of developers and players, but if they have the ability to draw this out and just enjoy the profits, then I'm sure they'd want to do that.

Last edited by Hiku - on 17 May 2019

RolStoppable said:
Switch numbers are okay. Neither the comparison to Switch's last April nor the direct comparison to the PS4 and XB1 this April should be used to declare the numbers great, because the bar is low in either case.

A bit perplexing that seemingly both Sony and Microsoft are targeting a late 2020 launch for their next consoles. Software releases in 2019 have hardly moved the needle on hardware sales anymore and a variety of promotions in the past will lessen the impact of an official price drop in the future. 2020 won't be looking good for them when 2019 already turns into a crawl.

Sony actually has a lot of potential ammo left in the deals and price cut realm.  Won't get them back to 2018 levels but can stabilize late 2019 and pre-PS5 2020.  Microsoft though is totally screwed



Around the Network
Hiku said:
RolStoppable said:

A bit perplexing that seemingly both Sony and Microsoft are targeting a late 2020 launch for their next consoles. Software releases in 2019 have hardly moved the needle on hardware sales anymore and a variety of promotions in the past will lessen the impact of an official price drop in the future. 2020 won't be looking good for them when 2019 already turns into a crawl.

Don't know about Xbox, but the higher your install base, the less important harware sales become compared to software sales, where the vast majority of your profits come from.
Why wouldn't they want to ride out the software sales a ~100m install base generates? Vs resetting the next generation race where they could potentially screw up big time, and end up with ~15m lifetime sales?

At some point they'll have to, in order to catch up with technology and the demands and expectations of developers and players, but if they have the ability to draw this out and just enjoy the profits, then I'm sure they'd want to do that.

Definitely makes a lot more sense for Sony than Microsoft. I think Microsoft believed their own PR for far too long ("XB1 sales are outpacing 360 sales launch-aligned."), hence why they've been so slow to prepare for the next generation.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

RolStoppable said:
Hiku said:

Don't know about Xbox, but the higher your install base, the less important harware sales become compared to software sales, where the vast majority of your profits come from.
Why wouldn't they want to ride out the software sales a ~100m install base generates? Vs resetting the next generation race where they could potentially screw up big time, and end up with ~15m lifetime sales?

At some point they'll have to, in order to catch up with technology and the demands and expectations of developers and players, but if they have the ability to draw this out and just enjoy the profits, then I'm sure they'd want to do that.

Definitely makes a lot more sense for Sony than Microsoft. I think Microsoft believed their own PR for far too long ("XB1 sales are outpacing 360 sales launch-aligned."), hence why they've been so slow to prepare for the next generation.

Yeah, I'm curious how Microsoft really feel about where they are right now. 42m+ is not bad by any means, but since they reached much higher with 360, they know they have the potential for more.

And I just wanted to add to my post that maybe a failure for PS5 isn't the best example to give for why they'd want to hold off, but rather something like this.

Sony are expecting 16m this fiscal year I believe?
16m to a 100m+ install base is still going to be a lot better than say 22m to a 30m install base.

The 6m extra units in growth doesn't offset the 70m difference in install base, which should translate to a lot more software sales.
So during these periods of a consoles life, I think what makes the console manufacturers more happy is if good games come out that generate a lot of software sales.

Of course, there's also the ability to sell games on both the old and new system simultaneously, so the subject is a bit more complicated. But I think one important factor here is that both Sony and MS are probably waiting until the technology they want for their next systems is ready. If they rush it by a bit, it can end up costing them in the long run. And that may very well be the biggest motivation for MS to hang in there for another year+.
Xbox One launched with the inferior DDR3 RAM, so I don't think they want to make mistakes like that again.

Last edited by Hiku - on 17 May 2019

linkink said:
thismeintiel said:
Switch holding strong. PS4 is down a little more than I expected, but it's understandable when it's still $300 and we are past the 5 year mark. It really needs to hit $249 permanently, probably throw in a game for good measure. The XBO is just basically past the point of no return. It's already seen numerous bundles that effectively make the console $199. There's really not much more they can do to actually boost sales. And selling a console that doesn't come with a disc drive for more than the one that does come with one (a 4K drive at that) ain't it.

LOL you mean paying more for less is not a good strategy? 

Surprising, I know.

Nuvendil said:
RolStoppable said:
Switch numbers are okay. Neither the comparison to Switch's last April nor the direct comparison to the PS4 and XB1 this April should be used to declare the numbers great, because the bar is low in either case.

A bit perplexing that seemingly both Sony and Microsoft are targeting a late 2020 launch for their next consoles. Software releases in 2019 have hardly moved the needle on hardware sales anymore and a variety of promotions in the past will lessen the impact of an official price drop in the future. 2020 won't be looking good for them when 2019 already turns into a crawl.

Sony actually has a lot of potential ammo left in the deals and price cut realm.  Won't get them back to 2018 levels but can stabilize late 2019 and pre-PS5 2020.  Microsoft though is totally screwed

Agreed.  We've seen how a $199 PS4 flies off shelves during BF week.  I imagine they'll only drop to $249 this year, but have a $179 bundle for BF, saving the permanent $199 for when the PS5 launches, with a $149 BF deal.  Like you said, nothing will get them to the heights of 2018, again, but it will slow the drops drastically.



Thread update.

Switch VS 3DS comparation after 26 months

Lifetime sales
Switch ~ 11.75 million
3DS ~ 8.37 million

3rd year
Switch ~ 1.26 million
3DS ~ 677K

26th month
Switch ~ 227K
3DS ~ 113K

Last edited by Ryng_Tolu - on 17 May 2019

Ryng_Tolu said:
Thread update.

Switch VS 3DS comparation after 26 months

Lifetime sales
Switch ~ 11.75 million
3DS ~ 8.37 million

3rd year
Switch ~ 1.27 million
3DS ~ 677K

26th month
Switch ~ 227K
3DS ~ 113K

Switch sold almost twice as many units from January to April 2019 than the 3DS sold from January to April 2013. Momentum is in Switch's favor by a significant margin.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club