Depends. Mario 64, with its DS rerelease, is over 22m according to VGChartz tracking.

Odyssey is at least the best-selling single release of a 3D Mario game.

We ill see how this plays out, but considering what games are coming this year and how the baseline evolved compared to last year, it feels like Nintendo is intentionally lowballing to make sure that they beat the numbers this time around.

This is the exact quote you were countering:

Dulfite said:
Rather than focusing on the fact that they missed their lofty goal, can we not simply appreciate how far the switch has come compared to Wii U? Only the Wii after the GameCube was probably a greater comeback in gaming history.

Your counter was that you think the PS3 is the greatest comeback in video gaming history. That can only mean that you think the PS3 moving from 3rd place in its generation into slightly over 2nd place is a bigger comeback than not just the Switch, but also the Wii. While we don't know yet where the Switch will finish in lifetime sales, we do know that it only took 10 months to surpass the lifetime sales of its predecessor the Wii U. The Wii U finished in last place not just in it's generation, but was the lowest selling home console in Nintendo's history. Threads and comments to the effect of "Nintendo needs to leave hardware and go 3rd Party" were commonplace on this site prior to the launch of the Switch.  Less than 3 years later and Nintendo now has the leading global hardware seller on the current market. That is the great comeback Dulfite was commenting on. And it was compared to Nintendo's other comeback of the Wii finishing 1st in its generation with over 101 million units sold right after its predecessor the Gamecube had just finished 3rd in its generation with less than 22 million units sold.  So, I'm trying to figure out your reasoning for stating the PS3 moving from 3rd place in its generation into 2nd place would be considered "the greatest comeback in gaming history".  Please elaborate.

Yeah, with Animal Crossing and Pokémon coming around, it could receive a giant boost. 

That software!

Hardware will be better this year I think.

The amount of click-bait articles that have come out to negatively spin sales is astounding.

The big question on the software side is now: Can Mario Kart 8 Deluxe beat Mario Kart Wii total sales?

That's pretty unlikely as it's still sold less than half of what Mario Kart Wii did with 37 million total. I think it's more likely to beat Mario Kart DS at 23 million in sales

Well, they can still outperform it. Even if they don't, it won't be underwhelming. There's nothing underwhelming about a console selling potentially 80M-90M.  Sure, it won't be a 120M+ PS4, but it still means Nintendo is in a healthy position going forward.

I apologize. I am a dick, I should have listened more the few people here who had better knowledge to estimate the quantities in transit.

This transit has been severly adjusted down by the last Q4 report. In my table also, the last VGC estimation for Q4 is not adjusted down yet, I suppose it will be.

I think he had a problem with that part