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Global Hardware 6 April 2019

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Medisti said:
curl-6 said:

They haven't revealed it though, they've just given some very scarce and vague comments, nothing to suggest it's imminent. That is not going to make people hold off on getting a PS4.

It will, though. Not as many as after the big reveal, but when your friend says "I heard the PS5 is gonna be revealed soon," you might decided to hold off until after you see what it is. Especially since it's apparently backwards-compatible.

They haven't said it's going to be revealed soon though. They've announced basically nothing except "at some undefined point in the future there'll be another Playstation (which was always a given) and it'll use a solid state drive." 



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curl-6 said:
Medisti said:

It will, though. Not as many as after the big reveal, but when your friend says "I heard the PS5 is gonna be revealed soon," you might decided to hold off until after you see what it is. Especially since it's apparently backwards-compatible.

They haven't said it's going to be revealed soon though. They've announced basically nothing except "at some undefined point in the future there'll be another Playstation (which was always a given) and it'll use a solid state drive." 

While that is true, I heard enough normies talk about how Nintendo had a new console coming soon after the NX was first mentioned. We're the minority of the market, really. Those who don't follow the stuff too closely tend to misinterpret a lot.



StarDoor said:
colafitte said:
Switch is performing as expected. Nintendo is going to ship around 17'0M for the FY18, so Switch has to end around 35M shipped total by the end of March. If Switch has sold 33'0M to consumers by then there will be around 2'0M on shelves, in my opinion a little bit too much by this time of the year (althought perfectly possible). So this could mean three things: a) Switch is not going to reach the goal, b) Switch has sold to consumers more than VGC is showing, c) Switch is going to have that much units on shelves indeed and that will mean Switch is going to sell a lot more than last year in Q1 FY19 to consumers thanks to previous stock left available.

Wait, so you think that Switch shipments are going to be more than 900k below sell-through for this quarter? To reach 17.0M, Switch needs to ship 2.52M, and VGC shows sell-through of 3.46M for those 13 weeks.

Winter is always where the shipments from the holiday season that couldn't be sold then anymore is going to be sold, hence why the stocks are shrinking in that period. But 900k is a whole lot and I don't think that's true, 600-800k seem more reasonable to me. Not very much lower, but still...



Medisti said:
curl-6 said:

They haven't said it's going to be revealed soon though. They've announced basically nothing except "at some undefined point in the future there'll be another Playstation (which was always a given) and it'll use a solid state drive." 

While that is true, I heard enough normies talk about how Nintendo had a new console coming soon after the NX was first mentioned. We're the minority of the market, really. Those who don't follow the stuff too closely tend to misinterpret a lot.

True, but they also have a short memory and I wouldn't be surprised if many of them either missed Sony's PS5 tease or have already forgotten about it. I guess I just feel like it would take something more solid like a full-blown reveal to have a substantial effect on PS4 sales, especially when there's no suggestion of PS5 arriving in the next year or even the next 18 months



Bofferbrauer2 said:
StarDoor said:

Wait, so you think that Switch shipments are going to be more than 900k below sell-through for this quarter? To reach 17.0M, Switch needs to ship 2.52M, and VGC shows sell-through of 3.46M for those 13 weeks.

Winter is always where the shipments from the holiday season that couldn't be sold then anymore is going to be sold, hence why the stocks are shrinking in that period. But 900k is a whole lot and I don't think that's true, 600-800k seem more reasonable to me. Not very much lower, but still...

Yeah, it's definitely possible for sales to exceed shipments, as that's frequently happened with PS4 in the March quarter. It's just really bizarre for colafitte to say that the VGC data makes him think that Switch will miss the target. At the end of March 2018, Switch had 17.79M shipped and VGC says 15.87M sold, which makes a gap of 1.92M. At the end of March 2019, VGC says that Switch is at 32.93M sold. For Switch to end up missing the fiscal year forecast, its shipments need to be under 34.79M: This means the gap between sales and shipments can be 1.86M at most. The only way for Switch to miss the forecast is if it has fewer units in stock now than it did back at the end of March 2018, despite selling at a 26%+ faster rate worldwide in the first quarter of 2019. If 1.86M is too much to have in stock at the end of March, according to colafitte, why was 1.92M not too much last year?



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Im very happy for the switch, it totally deserves it! Congrats!



People that are buying a PS4 these days are pretty much never going to be early adaptors of a PS5 anyway. So while PS4 sales will shrink, I'd say it's a natural thing of it being old rather than PS5 is coming in 1.5 years.

Obviously there are some people that are waiting for a PS5 rather than to chip in on a PS4.. but I dont think it's the key reason why sales are lowering.



siebensus4 said:

Xbox One has Wii U numbers. Ouch. Hard times for MS. I don't think that the All Digital will move a lot of units or show some significant legs.

But XboxOne Outsells the Wii U LT 3x



Pocky Lover Boy! 


colafitte said:

XBO is so dead that i still believe XBO won't reach 50M before their successor comes in 2020 (even if it comes in holiday 2020). Considering that, as time passes, i won't be surprised if Microsoft prefer to launch their next console during March 2020 to have an advantage against PS5 launching on the holiday season.

...but on the other hand, being out March 2020 poses a big risk of letting Sony get the upper hand by being able to tailor PS5 to counter what Xbox Two offers.

I'm not betting it will happen, just that i won't be surprised if it does. Let's imagine that in June 2019, Microsoft officialy annouces next Xbox showing new trailers from next gen games from their own like Halo Infinity and from companies like Ubisoft, EA, Activision, etc having marketing deals with those games but without saying price and launch date. Move forward to begin 2020 after holiday season. Announce next Xbox launching in March 2020 at $499 (a very powerful console) with updates from current gen games, extended gamepass service and minor exlusive games to launch in NA, some parts of Europe and rest of the world. By E3 2020 just announce more games for the end of the year and the launch date of Halo Infinity by October 2020. Next Xbox launching in March at least selling 2-3M worldwide during first month. By October at the time of Halo Inifinty launch you have around 3M units sold in USA and it sells around 1M more during that month. Not only that, by that time next Xbox launch in the rest of markets in the world. So if PS5 launches in November 2020 like i expect, you can have Next Xbox having already sold around 6-7M worldwide (and around 3M just in USA) before that and with one of the bigger games of the year in the holiday season. So XB automatically is the console with bigger userbase for 3rd party games. And if 499$ is too much you can low the price during 2021. In my opinion that would be the only way to stole the thunder from PS5 and their exclusives lineup.

I just think that if next Xbox launches alongside PS5 again, they will lose the battle once more....



StarDoor said:
colafitte said:
Switch is performing as expected. Nintendo is going to ship around 17'0M for the FY18, so Switch has to end around 35M shipped total by the end of March. If Switch has sold 33'0M to consumers by then there will be around 2'0M on shelves, in my opinion a little bit too much by this time of the year (althought perfectly possible). So this could mean three things: a) Switch is not going to reach the goal, b) Switch has sold to consumers more than VGC is showing, c) Switch is going to have that much units on shelves indeed and that will mean Switch is going to sell a lot more than last year in Q1 FY19 to consumers thanks to previous stock left available.

Wait, so you think that Switch shipments are going to be more than 900k below sell-through for this quarter? To reach 17.0M, Switch needs to ship 2.52M, and VGC shows sell-through of 3.46M for those 13 weeks.

Yes because there was a lot of stock back at Q3. So is perfectly normal that during Q4 there will be more Switch sold to consumers than units shipped to stores. In the end, by Q4 there has to be around 1'5-2'0M units on shelves. If you make the math, 33'0M units sold to consumers by the end of March plus 2'0M on shelves = 35'0M shipped units. 

StarDoor said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Winter is always where the shipments from the holiday season that couldn't be sold then anymore is going to be sold, hence why the stocks are shrinking in that period. But 900k is a whole lot and I don't think that's true, 600-800k seem more reasonable to me. Not very much lower, but still...

Yeah, it's definitely possible for sales to exceed shipments, as that's frequently happened with PS4 in the March quarter. It's just really bizarre for colafitte to say that the VGC data makes him think that Switch will miss the target. At the end of March 2018, Switch had 17.79M shipped and VGC says 15.87M sold, which makes a gap of 1.92M. At the end of March 2019, VGC says that Switch is at 32.93M sold. For Switch to end up missing the fiscal year forecast, its shipments need to be under 34.79M: This means the gap between sales and shipments can be 1.86M at most. The only way for Switch to miss the forecast is if it has fewer units in stock now than it did back at the end of March 2018, despite selling at a 26%+ faster rate worldwide in the first quarter of 2019. If 1.86M is too much to have in stock at the end of March, according to colafitte, why was 1.92M not too much last year?

Like i said, i did not said i expect Switch to miss the target, if fact i said Switch is performing exactly as expected to reach that goal. What I said is that to me 2'0M on shelves is a little too big number for me (and that's why i said there was a possibility Switch was selling even better than VGC showing), but that it's perfectly possible if Nintendo has some strategy behind that.

I will admit that because i was rounding numbers, in my mind i was saying "it's a little bit too much" because i was thinking 2'0M or more on shelves, but like you said, if they reach 17'0M that would be around 34'8M shipped, and just around 1'8-1'9M on shelves which is perfectly fine. So thanks to allow me to clarify that.

Last edited by colafitte - on 23 April 2019