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March NPD 2019 thread

Forums - Sales Discussion - March NPD 2019 thread

Shadow1980 said:
The next batch of charts will focus on quarterly sales in general, and will include the requested Year 6 comparisons to previous generations.

Nice! Thank you for the work.

jason1637 said:
Those graphics really show how well the Switch is doing. Best Q1 this gen is really good.

Yeah, Switch is consistently pulling big numbers.

Bofferbrauer2 said:
So in other words, XBO was only somewhat weaker than it's average for last month, but PS4 just had it's worst March.

A pricecut for the PS4 is getting more and more pressing, that is really a huge drop.

That's another way to look at it, I guess.

It'd be great to see a $100 pricecut for PS4. Still, I look forward to see Shadow's data on how much consoles have sold in their 6th March historically. If selling 253,000 is rare for a console's 6th March, it kinda gives some perspective to that "pressing pricecut", "huge drop", and "worst March".



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
So in other words, XBO was only somewhat weaker than it's average for last month, but PS4 just had it's worst March.

A pricecut for the PS4 is getting more and more pressing, that is really a huge drop.

That's another way to look at it, I guess.

It'd be great to see a $100 pricecut for PS4. Still, I look forward to see Shadow's data on how much consoles have sold in their 6th March historically. If selling 253,000 is rare for a console's 6th March, it kinda gives some perspective to that "pressing pricecut", "huge drop", and "worst March".

Why does everybody expect an $100 pricecut? If Sony does a pricecut, then certainly only $50, not $100.



Bofferbrauer2 said:

Why does everybody expect an $100 pricecut? If Sony does a pricecut, then certainly only $50, not $100.

I don't expect a $100 pricecut.

As I said, it'd be great to see (the effects of) a $100 pricecut but let's chill for a second. If selling 253,000 is rare for a console in its 6th March maybe it doesn't make much financial sense to cut the price.

Regarding your proposed $50 pricecut, that might push more consoles for a month or two but I don't think it'll change much in the long run if the group of potential PS4 customers is simply close to being saturated.

Shadow1980 knows far more about these trends than the two of us and I remember him showing that $50 pricecuts have had little to no effect historically. In that case, you're just throwing money away.



Okay. Here's the charts I promised:

Let's get the Switch out of the way first. It had the third-best third Q1 showing of any home console in the past three generations, bested only by the PS2 and Wii, two systems that crushed all sorts of records. Nintendo has quite the success story here. It may not pass the Wii or DS, but it's still hugely popular nonetheless.

The PS4 & XBO's combined quarterly sales are of course down YoY (-29.3%, to be exact) since they were both down individually. They also and don't fare favorably to combined Q1 Year 6 sales of of the PS3 & 360. Of course, the PS3 & 360 did not release at the same time, so let's get a bit more granular with the data, as well as add some comparisons to other systems (not all systems are present, either because they either didn't even have a Year 6 because they were discontinued, or because there's no data available):

The XBO not only had the worst sixth Q1 of any console that had a Year 6, it is doing vastly worse than its immediate predecessor did at this point in its life. However, the percentage drop looks pretty bad, though for what its worth the XBO had significant improvements in Q1 2018, as the charts in my previous post show, but those improvements diminished throughout the year. As a result, the XBO's YoY decline could potentially diminish over the course of the year, plus Gears 5 could move some hardware.

The PS4 also had a worse sixth Q1 than the PS3 did. However, the PS3 had the benefit of a price cut in September 2011 that dropped it from $300 to $250. It was down only 14.5% in Q1 2012, but was down 24% for the year as a whole, as the remaining three quarters has much larger drops. The PS4 meanwhile hasn't had a permanent price cut yet, and the Slim still retails normally at $300. As we can see, the PS4's drop in Q1 is about the same as the PS3's was in 2012 as a whole. Unfortunately, the PS4's showing for this year has to contend with the fact that the PS4 had three strong months due to major software releases (God of War in April, Spider-Man in September, and Red Dead 2 in October), so the overall YoY decline could grow even more unless Sony does something to slow down the rate of decline (such as a permanent price cut).

The 360 was the only system to see improvement in Year 6, but that's because it had a delayed peak. It not only was the beneficiary of the longest gap between systems (8 years from launch to replacement), but it continued to see improved sales every year up to 2011. It's overall declines in 2012, its seventh year, are more in line with what we saw with the PS3 in 2012.

Also, note that the PS1 had already been superseded by the PS2 by its sixth year. As for the PS2, its sixth Q1 was facing a huge Q1 in 2005 that resulted from a restock of the Slim model that had severe shortages in the 2004 holidays. For 2006 as a whole, it was down a lot less than for Q1, the only system in the graphs to end its sixth year with a lower YoY decline than what it had at the end of its sixth Q1.

Well, that took a lot longer than I had hoped for. I haven't even eaten yet and I need to give my truck an oil change, so I'm going to recuse myself for a while. If I post any more charts, it might not be for several days. I need a break from the internet to focus on other things I want to do, and I have to work tomorrow and Sunday (and possibly Monday) and I might be away from the house most of Saturday.



Damn the XBO has fallen to Wii late gen levels.



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jason1637 said:
Damn the XBO has fallen to Wii late gen levels.

Without any of the Wii early gen levels to look back on.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."