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PS5 Coming at the End of 2020 According to Analyst: High-Spec Hardware for Under $500

Forums - Sony Discussion - PS5 Coming at the End of 2020 According to Analyst: High-Spec Hardware for Under $500

Price, SKUs, specs ?

Only Base Model, $399, 9-10TF GPU, 16GB RAM 23 29.11%
 
Only Base Model, $449, 10-12TF GPU, 16GB RAM 13 16.46%
 
Only Base Model, $499, 12-14TF GPU, 24GB RAM 21 26.58%
 
Base Model $399 and PREMIUM $499 specs Ans3 10 12.66%
 
Base Mod $399 / PREM $549, >14TF 24GB RAM 5 6.33%
 
Base Mod $449 / PREM $599, the absolute Elite 7 8.86%
 
Total:79
Nate4Drake said:
DonFerrari said:

Next gen with power near X1X is kinda pointless.

I agree.   I'm confident the combination CPU/GPU/RAM of Anaconda and PS5 will be a significant jump over X and PRO.

Can't be, for 2 reasons:

1. Heat. A Vega, which comes close to the 1080 in power, consumes more power than an entire console. And downclocked to it's sweet spot the performance gain over the X is pretty weak.

2. Price. High-end GPUs cost way over 500$ (the Vega VII that got released today costs 700$ for instance), so you can't expect these to be built into a console unless production costs would at least match, if not exceed PS3 initial costs

Conina said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

But I agree with the sentiment, and I'm sure you're not gonna be alone with that. I already predicted about 2 years ago that the next gen will have a slow start due to this, as there's simply not enough time to get enough visual distance between themselves and the Pro/X mid-gen upgrade consoles. As a result, I fear both Sony and Microsoft possibly shot themselves in the foot with the upgrades, as they are leeching sales from their still unreleased successors. Or do you think anybody who bought a Pro/X now will buy a PS5/Xbox next anytime soon? Probably not too many, even moreso with Gamestop faltering, making trade-in potentially much more difficult by that time.

Not a big problem at all.

How many PS4s sold are Pro-models? Probably less than 10%: zero percent of the 43 million PS4s sold until the Pro-launch and probably less than 20% of the 50 million units sold after that... around 8 - 10 million PS4 Pros.

How many Xbox Ones sold are X-models? Probably less than 7%: zero percent of the 30 million Xbox Ones sold until the X-launch and probably less than 20% of the 12 million units sold after that... around 2 - 3 million Xbox One X.

Many of these 10 - 13 million Pro/X buyers are early adopters and/or enthusiasts and they will switch to the next consoles quite fast.

Much more than you think, I fear.

Have a look at the NPD prediction tool, where I try to find exactly that out - and over half of the PS4/XBO consoles sold nowadays in the US are Pro or X. In fact, the X has a whooping 80% ratio over the S right now (which is probably also why the S is so often on sale - it just doesn't sell anymore otherwise), while Pro and slim are more or less at equal terms.

If we expand that to global sales, and reduce the ratio a bit in favor of the slim/S models, then out of 280k weekly sales between PS4 and XBO probably still mean 120k Pro/X models sold per week outside of holidays by now. And while the sales of PS4 and XBO are slowly dropping, it's almost exclusively the base models that are dropping right now, giving the Pro and X an increasingly large market share.

In fact, since the Pro is already 2 full years on the market and the PS4 as a whole sold over 38M WW, I'm very sure at least one quarter of those sales are Pro sales, which by itself would already almost match your figures. And with 11.5M in the US alone, it's quite possible the Pro is closing in on 5M sold there by now. As for the X, look the first paragraph.

In other words, those 10-13 million you mention can very well be just globally in the US right now instead of worldwide. I'm pretty sure that Pro+X, taken together, already sold 15M+ and are by now close to half of all their consoles' share in weekly sales. Which means that until the next gen's release, there will be at least some additional 15M Pro and X consoles being sold, bringing their share to at least 30M consoles if the ratio stays the same, but 35-40M seem pretty plausible with their rising market share for then by now. And 30-40M who potentially won't upgrade because there's not too much of an upgrade can be pretty hefty, especially early on.

Also, don't forget that those enthusiasts who will upgrade mostly also sell their old console. A new new console for 499$ or an used Pro/X with almost the same visuals for 249$, what would you choose?

Nate4Drake said: 
HoloDust said: 

I guess many folks forgot this (which was quite a surprise to me back then):

 

 It's the 1st time I see this comparison, interesting.   So the GTX 750 can perform better than the PS4 GPU ?  And what about graphics, IQ and effects ?

Generally in those tests, the settings are set in a way to mimic those of the console (or the strongest one, generally PS4, if several console versions are tested side by side with the PC version) the closest way possible to avoid inaccuracies.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 08 February 2019

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Bofferbrauer2 said:
Nate4Drake said:

I agree.   I'm confident the combination CPU/GPU/RAM of Anaconda and PS5 will be a significant jump over X and PRO.

Can't be, for 2 reasons:

1. Heat. A Vega, which comes close to the 1080 in power, consumes more power than an entire console. And downclocked to it's sweet spot the performance gain over the X is pretty weak.

2. Price. High-end GPUs cost way over 500$ (the Vega VII that got released today costs 700$ for instance), so you can't expect these to be built into a console unless production costs would at least match, if not exceed PS3 initial costs

Conina said:

Not a big problem at all.

How many PS4s sold are Pro-models? Probably less than 10%: zero percent of the 43 million PS4s sold until the Pro-launch and probably less than 20% of the 50 million units sold after that... around 8 - 10 million PS4 Pros.

How many Xbox Ones sold are X-models? Probably less than 7%: zero percent of the 30 million Xbox Ones sold until the X-launch and probably less than 20% of the 12 million units sold after that... around 2 - 3 million Xbox One X.

Many of these 10 - 13 million Pro/X buyers are early adopters and/or enthusiasts and they will switch to the next consoles quite fast.

Much more than you think, I fear.

Have a look at the NPD prediction tool, where I try to find exactly that out - and over half of the PS4/XBO consoles sold nowadays in the US are Pro or X. In fact, the X has a whooping 80% ratio over the S right now (which is probably also why the S is so often on sale - it just doesn't sell anymore otherwise), while Pro and slim are more or less at equal terms.

If we expand that to global sales, and reduce the ratio a bit in favor of the slim/S models, then out of 280k weekly sales between PS4 and XBO probably still mean 120k Pro/X models sold per week outside of holidays by now. And while the sales of PS4 and XBO are slowly dropping, it's almost exclusively the base models that are dropping right now, giving the Pro and X an increasingly large market share.

In fact, since the Pro is already 2 full years on the market and the PS4 as a whole sold over 38M WW, I'm very sure at least one quarter of those sales are Pro sales, which by itself would already almost match your figures. And with 11.5M in the US alone, it's quite possible the Pro is closing in on 5M sold there by now. As for the X, look the first paragraph.

In other words, those 10-13 million you mention can very well be just globally in the US right now instead of worldwide. I'm pretty sure that Pro+X, taken together, already sold 15M+ and are by now close to half of all their consoles' share in weekly sales. Which means that until the next gen's release, there will be at least some additional 15M Pro and X consoles being sold, bringing their share to at least 30M consoles if the ratio stays the same, but 35-40M seem pretty plausible with their rising market share for then by now. And 30-40M who potentially won't upgrade because there's not too much of an upgrade can be pretty hefty, especially early on.

Also, don't forget that those enthusiasts who will upgrade mostly also sell their old console. A new new console for 499$ or an used Pro/X with almost the same visuals for 249$, what would you choose?

Sony is not spending what normal consumers spend for the GPU, and all other components(https://www.gamespot.com/articles/we-built-a-pc-using-ps4-pro-specs-how-does-it-perf/1100-6443491/), so the price point you made is a bit off;  I agree with you that we can't have the state of the art inside a console for all the reasons we know, but by the end of 2020, at a price of $449 you might have an interesting piece of hardware, sure much much more powerful than PS4 PRO.  We have just to wait and see.

Last edited by Nate4Drake - on 08 February 2019

”Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world.”

Harriet Tubman.

Nate4Drake said:
HoloDust said:

I guess many folks forgot this (which was quite a surprise to me back then):


 It's the 1st time I see this comparison, interesting.   So the GTX 750 Ti can perform better than the PS4 GPU ?  And what about graphics, IQ and effects ?

It's Digital Foundry comparison from way back in 2015, they used to do this for every game they did article on (IIRC), comparing it to budget build PC with 750Ti card.

Settings are as close as possbile to PS4 version - you can check link to articles below videos on YT, if here's no link just search Face off "name of the game you're interested in"



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Nate4Drake said:

I agree.   I'm confident the combination CPU/GPU/RAM of Anaconda and PS5 will be a significant jump over X and PRO.

Can't be, for 2 reasons:

1. Heat. A Vega, which comes close to the 1080 in power, consumes more power than an entire console. And downclocked to it's sweet spot the performance gain over the X is pretty weak.

2. Price. High-end GPUs cost way over 500$ (the Vega VII that got released today costs 700$ for instance), so you can't expect these to be built into a console unless production costs would at least match, if not exceed PS3 initial costs

Conina said:

Not a big problem at all.

How many PS4s sold are Pro-models? Probably less than 10%: zero percent of the 43 million PS4s sold until the Pro-launch and probably less than 20% of the 50 million units sold after that... around 8 - 10 million PS4 Pros.

How many Xbox Ones sold are X-models? Probably less than 7%: zero percent of the 30 million Xbox Ones sold until the X-launch and probably less than 20% of the 12 million units sold after that... around 2 - 3 million Xbox One X.

Many of these 10 - 13 million Pro/X buyers are early adopters and/or enthusiasts and they will switch to the next consoles quite fast.

Much more than you think, I fear.

Have a look at the NPD prediction tool, where I try to find exactly that out - and over half of the PS4/XBO consoles sold nowadays in the US are Pro or X. In fact, the X has a whooping 80% ratio over the S right now (which is probably also why the S is so often on sale - it just doesn't sell anymore otherwise), while Pro and slim are more or less at equal terms.

If we expand that to global sales, and reduce the ratio a bit in favor of the slim/S models, then out of 280k weekly sales between PS4 and XBO probably still mean 120k Pro/X models sold per week outside of holidays by now. And while the sales of PS4 and XBO are slowly dropping, it's almost exclusively the base models that are dropping right now, giving the Pro and X an increasingly large market share.

In fact, since the Pro is already 2 full years on the market and the PS4 as a whole sold over 38M WW, I'm very sure at least one quarter of those sales are Pro sales, which by itself would already almost match your figures. And with 11.5M in the US alone, it's quite possible the Pro is closing in on 5M sold there by now. As for the X, look the first paragraph.

In other words, those 10-13 million you mention can very well be just globally in the US right now instead of worldwide. I'm pretty sure that Pro+X, taken together, already sold 15M+ and are by now close to half of all their consoles' share in weekly sales. Which means that until the next gen's release, there will be at least some additional 15M Pro and X consoles being sold, bringing their share to at least 30M consoles if the ratio stays the same, but 35-40M seem pretty plausible with their rising market share for then by now. And 30-40M who potentially won't upgrade because there's not too much of an upgrade can be pretty hefty, especially early on.

Also, don't forget that those enthusiasts who will upgrade mostly also sell their old console. A new new console for 499$ or an used Pro/X with almost the same visuals for 249$, what would you choose?

Nate4Drake said: 

 It's the 1st time I see this comparison, interesting.   So the GTX 750 can perform better than the PS4 GPU ?  And what about graphics, IQ and effects ?

Generally in those tests, the settings are set in a way to mimic those of the console (or the strongest one, generally PS4, if several console versions are tested side by side with the PC version) the closest way possible to avoid inaccuracies.

Sony themselves have said about 20-25% of the consoles sold after Pro have been Pro. So about 10-12M Pros so far in the market. That is about the enthusiast customers that will probably buy PS5 on the first 2 years anyway.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

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Nate4Drake said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Can't be, for 2 reasons:

1. Heat. A Vega, which comes close to the 1080 in power, consumes more power than an entire console. And downclocked to it's sweet spot the performance gain over the X is pretty weak.

2. Price. High-end GPUs cost way over 500$ (the Vega VII that got released today costs 700$ for instance), so you can't expect these to be built into a console unless production costs would at least match, if not exceed PS3 initial costs

Much more than you think, I fear.

Have a look at the NPD prediction tool, where I try to find exactly that out - and over half of the PS4/XBO consoles sold nowadays in the US are Pro or X. In fact, the X has a whooping 80% ratio over the S right now (which is probably also why the S is so often on sale - it just doesn't sell anymore otherwise), while Pro and slim are more or less at equal terms.

If we expand that to global sales, and reduce the ratio a bit in favor of the slim/S models, then out of 280k weekly sales between PS4 and XBO probably still mean 120k Pro/X models sold per week outside of holidays by now. And while the sales of PS4 and XBO are slowly dropping, it's almost exclusively the base models that are dropping right now, giving the Pro and X an increasingly large market share.

In fact, since the Pro is already 2 full years on the market and the PS4 as a whole sold over 38M WW, I'm very sure at least one quarter of those sales are Pro sales, which by itself would already almost match your figures. And with 11.5M in the US alone, it's quite possible the Pro is closing in on 5M sold there by now. As for the X, look the first paragraph.

In other words, those 10-13 million you mention can very well be just globally in the US right now instead of worldwide. I'm pretty sure that Pro+X, taken together, already sold 15M+ and are by now close to half of all their consoles' share in weekly sales. Which means that until the next gen's release, there will be at least some additional 15M Pro and X consoles being sold, bringing their share to at least 30M consoles if the ratio stays the same, but 35-40M seem pretty plausible with their rising market share for then by now. And 30-40M who potentially won't upgrade because there's not too much of an upgrade can be pretty hefty, especially early on.

Also, don't forget that those enthusiasts who will upgrade mostly also sell their old console. A new new console for 499$ or an used Pro/X with almost the same visuals for 249$, what would you choose?

Sony is not spending what normal consumers spend for a GPU, so the price point you made is a bit off;  I agree with you that we can't have the state of the art inside a console for all the reasons we know, but by the end of 2020, at a price of $449 you might have an interesting piece of hardware, sure much much more powerful than PS4 PRO.  We have just to wait and see.

AMD said that with the 7nm process, compared to 14nm, they can have either a 50% reduction in power consumption or 25% increase in performance. The One X is the pinnacle of console performance in 14nm, so 25% more would actually just be enough to reach the performance of a GTX 1070. Add in architectural improvements made with Navi and the console APUs can reach GTX 1080 performance, but that's about it.

And yeah I know that's not the price Sony and Microsoft would pay for them, just pointing out that high-end hardware is both thermally and financially out of reach for consoles.



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I doubt they won't have a cheaper SKU, at that price all MS needs to do is launch cheaper and win the war. Price is super important.



Nate4Drake said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Can't be, for 2 reasons:

1. Heat. A Vega, which comes close to the 1080 in power, consumes more power than an entire console. And downclocked to it's sweet spot the performance gain over the X is pretty weak.

2. Price. High-end GPUs cost way over 500$ (the Vega VII that got released today costs 700$ for instance), so you can't expect these to be built into a console unless production costs would at least match, if not exceed PS3 initial costs

Much more than you think, I fear.

Have a look at the NPD prediction tool, where I try to find exactly that out - and over half of the PS4/XBO consoles sold nowadays in the US are Pro or X. In fact, the X has a whooping 80% ratio over the S right now (which is probably also why the S is so often on sale - it just doesn't sell anymore otherwise), while Pro and slim are more or less at equal terms.

If we expand that to global sales, and reduce the ratio a bit in favor of the slim/S models, then out of 280k weekly sales between PS4 and XBO probably still mean 120k Pro/X models sold per week outside of holidays by now. And while the sales of PS4 and XBO are slowly dropping, it's almost exclusively the base models that are dropping right now, giving the Pro and X an increasingly large market share.

In fact, since the Pro is already 2 full years on the market and the PS4 as a whole sold over 38M WW, I'm very sure at least one quarter of those sales are Pro sales, which by itself would already almost match your figures. And with 11.5M in the US alone, it's quite possible the Pro is closing in on 5M sold there by now. As for the X, look the first paragraph.

In other words, those 10-13 million you mention can very well be just globally in the US right now instead of worldwide. I'm pretty sure that Pro+X, taken together, already sold 15M+ and are by now close to half of all their consoles' share in weekly sales. Which means that until the next gen's release, there will be at least some additional 15M Pro and X consoles being sold, bringing their share to at least 30M consoles if the ratio stays the same, but 35-40M seem pretty plausible with their rising market share for then by now. And 30-40M who potentially won't upgrade because there's not too much of an upgrade can be pretty hefty, especially early on.

Also, don't forget that those enthusiasts who will upgrade mostly also sell their old console. A new new console for 499$ or an used Pro/X with almost the same visuals for 249$, what would you choose?

Sony is not spending what normal consumers spend for the GPU, and all other components(https://www.gamespot.com/articles/we-built-a-pc-using-ps4-pro-specs-how-does-it-perf/1100-6443491/), so the price point you made is a bit off;  I agree with you that we can't have the state of the art inside a console for all the reasons we know, but by the end of 2020, at a price of $449 you might have an interesting piece of hardware, sure much much more powerful than PS4 PRO.  We have just to wait and see.

It's not by the end of 2020. Sony isn't going to choose the GPU at the end of 2020. They've already got the GPU at this point if they are releasing at the end of 2020.



DakonBlackblade said:
I doubt they won't have a cheaper SKU, at that price all MS needs to do is launch cheaper and win the war. Price is super important.

It's not that simple anymore with BC coming into play (if rumors are true). People wont be so quick to abandon Sony if they know they'll also have to leave all their games. It was easy this gen because neither offered BC so no matter what you were leaving your library of games behind. 



method114 said:
Nate4Drake said:

Sony is not spending what normal consumers spend for the GPU, and all other components(https://www.gamespot.com/articles/we-built-a-pc-using-ps4-pro-specs-how-does-it-perf/1100-6443491/), so the price point you made is a bit off;  I agree with you that we can't have the state of the art inside a console for all the reasons we know, but by the end of 2020, at a price of $449 you might have an interesting piece of hardware, sure much much more powerful than PS4 PRO.  We have just to wait and see.

It's not by the end of 2020. Sony isn't going to choose the GPU at the end of 2020. They've already got the GPU at this point if they are releasing at the end of 2020.

Of course.   Hardware must be finalized and tested, no way to choose it in Nov 2020.  I was talking about hardware ready to be shipped by end of 2020, and how much it would cost to Sony to produce it.



”Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world.”

Harriet Tubman.

Nate4Drake said:
method114 said:

It's not by the end of 2020. Sony isn't going to choose the GPU at the end of 2020. They've already got the GPU at this point if they are releasing at the end of 2020.

Of course.   Hardware must be finalized and tested, no way to choose it in Nov 2020.  I was talking about hardware ready to be shipped by end of 2020, and how much it would cost to Sony to produce it.

Ah ok. Yea should be interesting to see. I normally am not excited during next gen announcements for some reason though I just feel like this one will be big. With MS losing so much ground they gained with the 360 and Sony trying to maintain if not increase their user base I just feel like this is going to be a really exciting new gen.