By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
marcopolo789 said:

Did you get that info about the economy tanking from a crystal ball? Ahhh yeah, the so called experts. The so called experts that said it would be a disaster for the UK not to join the Euro in currency. The same experts who told us the sky would fall and oxygen would disappear if leave won. None of the scaremongering happened. Actually on the contrary. Since the vote our economy has grown, more jobs have been created. We are exporting more. When did the sky fall? The real answer is...no one really knows what will happen. I guarantee which ever way it goes we will come out of it stronger than before. We are British at the end of the day, we do not just give up we build. This is what boggles my mind. We as a nation until this generation and the PC liberal brigade started brainwashing we would have turned around and told the EU to go F themselves, the last PM with balls to do that was Thatcher, what boggles my mind even after seeing the bully tactics the EU are trying to force on us by demanding billions and it is their way or the high way people still want to remain. Look what Macron has said, who the hell does that little pipsqueak think he is? Juncker? Do not get me started on that unelected alcoholic.

 

Can I ask why your generation think it is racist to be worried about uncontrolled immigration and taking way too many refugees? See, that is what I am talking about. You lot have been brainwashed by the liberal pc correct education system. Majority of tutors and teachers and leftist liberals that try and drum their opinions on to their students and for the most part it has worked, should be illegal. According to the left I am a racist nazi fascist for being worried about the influx of migrants and refugees. Our schools can not handle it, we do not have enough housing specially social our infrastructure simply can not handle it any more. Also why should my child lose out on education because a couple in the class can not speak English and the focus is on them. Have you ever tried getting social housing these days? I know a pregnant mother who is basically homeless but the waiting list is so long. They say immigrants do not jump the queue, that is a load of rubbish, of course they do. Try get a doctors appointment or if you are unlucky have to go to A and E. You will see the reason why it takes so long, full of people who have never paid a penny in to the system.

 

Call me racist for wanting more control over who comes here, who gets housing and who gets to use our NHS that I pay for through my taxes, I really do not care. That word is used way too much these days it means nothing.

How about these:

https://voxeu.org/article/300-million-week-output-cost-brexit-vote

https://voxeu.org/article/rising-brexit-uncertainty-has-reduced-investment-and-employment

https://voxeu.org/article/consequences-brexit-uk-inflation-and-living-standards-first-evidence

https://www.nber.org/papers/w25334 (which is a government source btw)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/28/chancellor-uk-worse-off-brexit-scenarios-philip-hammond

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/22/business/brexit-uk-economic-damage/index.html

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/04/business/uk-business-confidence-brexit-deloitte/index.html

And Keep in mind that's still all before even leaving the EU and mostly spurred just by the mere prospect of it happening. Now guess what happens when the Brexit actually happens? Especially a No-deal Brexit, which the companies are really fearing by far the most?

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 22 March 2019

Around the Network
NightlyPoe said:
MrWayne said:

How would that solve anything? The EU would never accept this "new deal".

Why not?  If the only point of contention is the Irish border, then surely continuing negotiations where neither side is actually interested in creating a hard border is better than having a hard border up in three weeks.

Like I said, the ball needs to go back to the other court.  Let them own a share of the consequences by having to make a tough choice.

Removing the Backstop would automatically lead to a hard border in Ireland anyway. The Backstop was the British solution to avoid a hard border there, so removing it without replacing it with something else doesn't solve the problem at all, it ensures the problem.

This is the core of the problem, as the hardcore brexiteers can't accept the backstop, but Europe wouldn't accept a deal without it (or, like I said, another mechanic to avoid a hard border in Northern Ireland). This is the problem with brexiteers mainly, as they squarely reject the backstop, but don't come up with any viable alternative.

May's tactic (or hope I should say) was that the hardcore Brexiteers could be overwhelmed by the other MPs in Parliament and get the Deal through due to the clock ticking relentlessly. Hence trying to get it trough a third time. But I doubt that will work out.



I can barely keep up with this anymore. Nothing happens for almost 3 years, then suddenly everything happens at once as everyone panics as they realize they're about to crash into the iceberg and sink the ship and the captain's drunk off her ass and no one has any idea how to drive this thing.



HylianSwordsman said:
I can barely keep up with this anymore. Nothing happens for almost 3 years, then suddenly everything happens at once as everyone panics as they realize they're about to crash into the iceberg and sink the ship and the captain's drunk off her ass and no one has any idea how to drive this thing.

Like EU officials said, voting that they don't want no deal Brexit was like the Titanic voting for the Iceberg to get out of the way.



These past few posts just goes to show anyone how much respect my generation has for democracy which is none ...

My generation does not deserve to be graced with democracy and I sincerely hope that China takes over this world in the future to strip nearly everyone of their options just to prove how bitter it is to have the so called 'experts' always choosing for you ...

The Scottish nationalists had better be damn well prepared if brexit doesn't come to pass then the UK has 'precedent' to ignore their pleas for independence as well no matter how much they vote for it, HAHAHA ...



Around the Network
NightlyPoe said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Removing the Backstop would automatically lead to a hard border in Ireland anyway. The Backstop was the British solution to avoid a hard border there, so removing it without replacing it with something else doesn't solve the problem at all, it ensures the problem.

That's simply incorrect.  The backstop doesn't come into effect until 2021 at the earliest in the case of future negotiations faltering.  Strip it out of May's deal and nothing changes in the immediate future while the two sides continue negotiating the broader agreement during the transition period.

There's no "automatic" hard border.  Neither side even wants a hard border.  And all Britain is asking for is an expiration date on the backstop so they won't be permanently entangled.  In the end, that's a bare minimum for a country to demand in any negotiations.  It's basic sovereignty.

That's where you got it all wrong.

The reason it would only come into effect in 2021 is that during the transition period the UK would effectively still be in the customs union, hence no need for the backstop until then. Without the transition period the backstop would have come into effect the moment the UK would leave the EU with a deal. Take it out and there would be a hard border as soon as the transition period ends - and that's simply unacceptable for the EU and Ireland, but apparently not for hardcore brexiteers. And considering how everything is going in Parliament, I doubt they could vote on another way to keep the border open until then.

Nobody wants a hard border? I heard that one before:

"Niemand hat die Absicht eine Mauer zu errichten!" (Translation: Nobody wants to erect a wall!) GDR State Council Walter Ulbricht, June 15 1961, weeks before the Berlin wall started to be built.

That's what Reese-Moog and his ERG are proclaiming, while doing everything in their might to avoid the one solution there is right now to have an open border there. They don't like the Backstop? That's totally okay, but then they should come with workable alternatives instead of just being naysayers. The problem is, apart from a reunification of Ireland, which would remove the problem altogether but is understandably unacceptable for the UK, there's not much else that can be done.



NightlyPoe said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

That's where you got it all wrong.

The reason it would only come into effect in 2021 is that during the transition period the UK would effectively still be in the customs union, hence no need for the backstop until then. Without the transition period the backstop would have come into effect the moment the UK would leave the EU with a deal.

Umm, no.  That's where I was completely correct from the beginning.  I said if the UK sends back an agreement in which they aren't permanently locked in, then they could continue negotiating for the next few years instead of facing a hard border in a few weeks.

You decided to throw a meme at me and tell me the hard border was automatic without the backstop, instead of something to be negotiated later, demonstrating that you didn't understand what it was.

I then correctly define what it means, and then you repeat what I said and tell me that I'm wrong.

Nobody wants a hard border? I heard that one before:

"Niemand hat die Absicht eine Mauer zu errichten!" (Translation: Nobody wants to erect a wall!) GDR State Council Walter Ulbricht, June 15 1961, weeks before the Berlin wall started to be built.

I'm sure comparing the British not giving up their sovereignty to East Germans imprisoning their own citizens sounded clever in your head.  I assure you, it wasn't.  It was in nothing but poor taste.

They don't like the Backstop? That's totally okay, but then they should come with workable alternatives instead of just being naysayers.

There's two, more likely four years to explore how the Irish border will be handled while they're in the transition period.  The only thing they're saying is that the EU doesn't get to lock them in and give them a tool for essentially dictating terms at the end of those negotiations.

In the end, it's the UK's border.  The EU and even Ireland doesn't get to dictate it.  They can negotiate, but this attempt to strong arm is pretty much exactly why the EU itself (and international institutions in general) are problematic.

The transition period will only come if there is a deal ready before April 12. And such a deal needs to have a backstop or other such mechanism to be accepted by the EU. You don't understand that the backstop (or any replacement of it) must be part of the deal and that one must be accepted by the UK parliament before April 12, or there will be no deal.

The UK had almost 3 years but all they did was saying what they didn't want. Now it's high time to tell what they want. The Irish border was something they should have figured out in that time but they didn't. They obviously didn't figure anything out, by the looks of it. In fact, the Irish border should have been considered before even coming to the vote.

Also, how do you get to "2, likely 4 years"? December 31 2020 is the last day of the transition period, that's less than 2 years. And don't expect it to be lengthened, the hardcore brexiteers are already very unhappy about the transition period existing at all and certainly don't accept any extension to it.

In short, the UK had any opportunity to figure that out, but they rather squandered their time. Time's up

@bolded: It didn't sound clever, it's just what the ERG is doing. They don't want a wall, but refuse everything that would avoid a wall. The result will be a wall at this rate if they can't decide on something within the next 3 weeks.

The ball is on the Uk side for some time now, it's time to play. They thought they were holding all the cards, but found out just how wrong they were. It's not the UK, but the EU who holds the cards, but are ready to relinquish some if the UK finally makes a move - but they are waiting for that for months now.



NightlyPoe said:

That's simply incorrect.  The backstop doesn't come into effect until 2021 at the earliest in the case of future negotiations faltering.  Strip it out of May's deal and nothing changes in the immediate future while the two sides continue negotiating the broader agreement during the transition period.

There's no "automatic" hard border.  Neither side even wants a hard border.  And all Britain is asking for is an expiration date on the backstop so they won't be permanently entangled.  In the end, that's a bare minimum for a country to demand in any negotiations.  It's basic sovereignty.

Gotta realize when striking a withdrawal agreement with the EU it needs unanimous approval among the other 27 members and specifically, Ireland will veto anything else other than a backstop or a customs union ... 

Leo Varadkar's party, Fine Gael are not interested in losing the next election by risking to ruin the Good Friday Agreement. The Taoiseach is also not keen on putting a border between Ireland and the EU either. The EU does not like the idea of seeing contraband reach their single market through a potential backdoor in Ireland where goods can be smuggled from the Irish border ... 

The backstop is an absolute necessity according to both Ireland and the EU if their not willing to accept borders between each other or the smuggling of illegal goods. The UK lowering their trade barriers relative to the EU will threaten local businesses in the mainland ... (it's the ugly truth that the EU needs more protectionism otherwise it'd get massively undercut by competitors like China or the US)

If the UK is not interested in the proposed relationship or a closer relationship then the only solution is to no deal ... (I think the UK should take this path and takes advantage of it to the maximum degree as much as possible)

The UK needs a revamp in some industries to make it more productive. They should accept chlorinated chicken, hormone treated beef, and GM foods in agriculture to get more food. The UK could also do without GDPR since it practically makes deep learning illegal and Europe's currently best start up tech hub culture is located in London which could play nicely to their advantage. Instead of focusing so much on financial services they should invest a lot on machine learning so that they can take full advantage of automation in a digital economy and the EU will never be able to take complete advantage of automation since it has far reaching restrictions on how data is handled ... 



marcopolo789 said:
Scoobes said:

@ bolded

How?

We will not be forced to give benefits which includes sending child benefit to people in Poland, we will not be forced to house EU immigrants, we will not be forced to pay single mothers with 12 kids from Slovakia who have never paid a penny in to the system child tax credit. The list goes on. Ill take proper tomorrow I need to be up for work and pay tax at 7 and it is already late.

None of that is actually true though.

How much do EU migrants pay in to the UK compared to how much they take out?

Did you know we could have had immigration controls whilst in the EU which we chose not to implement that could easily have prevented the scenarios you're describing.



NightlyPoe said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

The transition period will only come if there is a deal ready before April 12.

And?

And such a deal needs to have a backstop or other such mechanism to be accepted by the EU. You don't understand that the backstop (or any replacement of it) must be part of the deal and that one must be accepted by the UK parliament before April 12, or there will be no deal.

I completely understand that's what the EU wants.  The UK is correctly refusing to relinquish its sovereignty.  So the EU can't have it.

And if the Irish border is truly that important to them, then it's the EU that needs to be flexible on the subject, not the UK.  Otherwise, the hard border happens in 3 weeks.

The UK had almost 3 years but all they did was saying what they didn't want. Now it's high time to tell what they want.

That's silly rhetoric and ignores that I advised that they do exactly that and send back an amended deal.  I've little doubt that it would pass without that poison pill.

Also, how do you get to "2, likely 4 years"?

May's deal includes an option for a two year extension.

In short, the UK had any opportunity to figure that out, but they rather squandered their time. Time's up

Again, that's silly rhetoric.  There is still plenty of time to negotiate within the transition period.  The backstop is, theoretically, not even supposed to be used.  You're acting like the whole thing has to be decided now, when the whole point of the backstop was that it would be decided later and the EU wanted an insurance policy.

They don't want a wall, but refuse everything that would avoid a wall. The result will be a wall at this rate if they can't decide on something within the next 3 weeks.

What everything?  There's only one thing on the table.

The ball is on the Uk side for some time now, it's time to play.

And, as I said, they should say what they will accept and put the onus on the EU.

They thought they were holding all the cards, but found out just how wrong they were. It's not the UK, but the EU who holds the cards

Yeah, that sort of attitude is exactly why Brexit is the correct move.  What a world we live in where people don't recognize how corrosive that is.

I'm still not seeing how anything you suggested would put the ball back in the EU's court.

They would simply refuse until the UK came up with a suitable insurance policy or a genuine solution to the border issue that didn't break the GFA and international law (which is basically what the EU have been saying all along). The onus would be back on the UK as the party that decided to leave, and international law would be on the EU's side. What realistic alternative amendment to the backstop do you suggest the UK sends?

@ your last point (italics)

It's not just the EU that holds all the cards. This is supposed to be the easy part with our nearest neighbors. How do you think we're going to get deals with other large nations when we've squandered trade with our nearest and largest allies?