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PR: Nintendo Switch Best Selling week Ever (US) (8.2mil+Sold Switches LTD) [Update: 8.6mil+]

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - PR: Nintendo Switch Best Selling week Ever (US) (8.2mil+Sold Switches LTD) [Update: 8.6mil+]

Some heated battles in here.

As far as I see the 8.2m is the number Nintendo up until then knew 100% the had hit, and there’s a still unknown number it sold om top. I’d just wait for NPD or better yet Nintendo’s financial briefing before throwing any hard statements around, but that’s me. Can’t really make much of these bits of information.



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quickrick said:
zorg1000 said:

Stop playing the victim, you said pokemon would fall off a cliff yet predict it will sell 3-4x its first week sales which is right in line with the series past.

X/Y sold ~4m first week, lifetime is ~16m.

OR/AS sold ~3.5m first week, lifetime is ~14m.

S/M sold ~5m first week, lifetime is ~16m.

US/UM sold ~2m first week, lifetime is ~8m.

3-4x first week sales was normal for all the 3DS entries.

I don't get what you are trying to say. all i'm gonna say is i expect 10 million LTD for pokemon, and sales to decline fast after the holidays.

What happened to 6-8 million? Now it's 10 million, what made you change your mind? 

I recall another post by you where you stated both Pokemon and Smash would be disappointments, still hold to that theory? 



PortisheadBiscuit said:
quickrick said:

I don't get what you are trying to say. all i'm gonna say is i expect 10 million LTD for pokemon, and sales to decline fast after the holidays.

What happened to 6-8 million? Now it's 10 million, what made you change your mind? 

I recall another post by you where you stated both Pokemon and Smash would be disappointments, still hold to that theory? 

it depends what the expectations were for those people, we will know soon enough. 

Last edited by quickrick - on 05 December 2018

Talking about December sales in US



Miyamotoo said:
Talking about December sales in US

Nothing surprising, but we still don't know how well Pokemon sold in US in November. But yes, Switch was always going to sell around 2M in December in USA so of course Smash Bros was going to be the responsible of that. If Switch goes from 1'0-1'1M sold in November to 2'0M in December it should be around a 100% growth month over month.

And if Sony doesn't surprise us with a good bundle for PS4 in December (and it seems is not going to do it), Switch will end as the best selling console of the year in USA.



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Miyamotoo said:
Talking about December sales in US

Thanks for sharing! Gonna be a good December! Looking forward to see where switch ends up! 



Bumping for the lolz. Switch sold 1.35mil+ all this arguing for nothing lol



tbone51 said:
Bumping for the lolz. Switch sold 1.35mil+ all this arguing for nothing lol

Some users in this thread were taking Nintendo PR bullshit numbers too seriously after MK8D PR numbers. 

 



LGBTDBZBBQ said:
tbone51 said:
Bumping for the lolz. Switch sold 1.35mil+ all this arguing for nothing lol

Some users in this thread were taking Nintendo PR bullshit numbers too seriously after MK8D PR numbers. 

 

It was like many pointed out a misunderstanding. Nitendo didnt clarify enough info but in the end the most logical opinion was that Nintendo only was talking about BF week



Time to do the math for the conclusion. Known values:

1. Cumulative Switch sales by the end of October based on collected NPD numbers/estimates: 7.38m.
2. Nintendo's PR statement: 8.2m+
3. Difference between October LTD and Nintendo PR: 830k-910k
4. November NPD: 1.35m
5. Cumulative Switch sales by the end of November: 8.73m
6. Difference between November LTD and value 3: 440k-520k

We've had two different interpretations of the PR's LTD number of 8.2m+:

1. The number is correct. In that case Switch sold 440k-520k in the remaining 5 days of the November tracking period. At that pace Switch is in for a huge December with the looming launch of Super Smash Bros. Ultimate.

2. The number is wrong and only accounts for Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday while being missing the preceding days of the November tracking period. In that case Switch sold 830k-910k in the 5-day-period from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, leaving 440k-520k for the remaining 23 days of November. Divided by 3 for simplicity's sake, that gives us a weekly average of 150k-175k which is pretty low considering there was the Pokémon Let's Go release before Black Friday and the ramp up for holiday sales after Cyber Monday.

The conclusion

The maths makes this an interesting case. While before the November NPD results the anti-Switch faction argued option 1 and the pro-Switch faction argued option 2, these roles can easily reverse after the results have come out. The pro-Switch faction will gladly take the expectation of a huge December with option 1 while the anti-Switch faction faces an incredibly hollow victory and therefore would rather have option 2 to be true now.

The one thing that is certain is that quickrick is wrong on pretty much everything during the decisive stage of his big predictions:

1. Pokémon Let's Go is doing much better than he expected.
2. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate is doing much better than he expected.
3. Switch comfortably beat his initial prediction for November NPD: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8927623
4. Switch will comfortably beat his prediction for the whole year in the USA (4.5m). Switch is at ~3.85m with December left to go.
5. Switch will comfortably beat his prediction for the whole year worldwide (14m). Switch sold ~13m in 2017 and has already been up year over year by over 1m before going into a holiday season that will be without a doubt better than 2017's.

The pattern is blatantly obvious. All the guy ever did was predict against Switch. One would have to be oblivious to that in order to give him credit for his few correct predictions. Fling stuff at the wall in hopes that something sticks; that's all it ever was.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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